MJWS in PEI

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I've been meaning to blog for several days now, if only to provide a personal update, but, well, I haven't really spent much time at the computer this week.

You see, I'm on vacation for a couple of weeks in Prince Edward Island. (In? On? Both, I suppose.)

It's my favourite place in the world, a long way from Democratic impotence (understandable, to a point, given the need for 60 Senate votes to get anything done) and the descent into madness of the Republican Party, and of American conservatism generally, and I'm enjoying some time away from it all. Other than watching Stewart and Colbert, I'm just not paying much attention to the news.

Although I did read about Ted Stevens, and I did plan a post with this title: "Ted Stevens is dead. Long live the Intertubes!" Maybe later.

I may get to blogging a bit in the days to come, if I can tear myself away from rest and relaxation, much needed with a busy fall ahead, what with the November midterms and all, but be sure to keep checking back for some great posts from my co-bloggers. (Of course, I've been reading their posts, as always -- and, as always, I come away far better for it, so good do I think my co-bloggers are.)

In the meantime, I'm eating a lot of seafood -- the halibut is simply unbelievable, as are the oysters, as fresh as can be, harvested just minutes from here -- and basking in the beauty of this place, of which I cannot get enough.

-- Michael

"Uncle Ted" is dead: Begich defeats Stevens in Alaska Senate race

By Michael J.W. Stickings

It's been two weeks since Election Day, but at long last Republican incumbent/felon Ted has fallen to Democratic challenger Mark Begich.

By the end of last week, Begich's lead was up to over a thousand.

With all votes now counted except for about 2,500 special absentee ballots -- from Alaskans living overseas and from remote parts of the state -- his lead has widened to an insurmountable 3,724.

(There may be a recount next month, but the margin is quite wide, and, "since the state moved to mostly machine counting, recent Alaska recounts have resulted in little change in the final tally.")

And so Begich has claimed victory.

And we applaud.

Begich pulls ahead in Alaska Senate count

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Democratic challenger Mark Begich's lead over Republican incumbent/felon Ted Stevens was 814 on Thursday. It's now 1,022, with "about 24,000 ballots left to be counted, coming from Anchorage, Southeast Alaska and the Kenai Peninsula," according to the Anchorage Daily News. "The state will tally them all Tuesday."

It was expected that Stevens would actually narrow the gap somewhat yesterday, with many votes counted from "northern and western Alaska, the Mat-Su and the Fairbanks region, including the North Pole area, where Stevens is hugely popular." Instead, Begich pulled ahead by more than 200 votes.

There may yet be a recount next month, but, as of right now, with many votes still to be counted from Begich's Anchorage and southeast Alaska strongholds, the Stevens campaign seems to have read the writing on the wall:

The Stevens campaign has long gone silent, and once again Friday wouldn't comment on the race. The campaign office in Midtown Anchorage was largely deserted. The giant wall photos of Stevens were gone. So were the rows of campaign signs. All that remained was a pair of volunteers packing boxes.

(So... sad...)

(Tears... welling up...)

(Salty... salty discharge...)

No, it's not over yet, but it's certainly looking good for Begich.

Begich expands lead in Alaska Senate count

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Democrat Mark Begich overtook Republican/felon Ted Stevens late yesterday, at one point holding a lead of just three votes, and he has expanded his lead as the counting continues.

As the Anchorage Daily News is reporting (and CNN and Alaska Elections have the same numbers), Begich is now up by 814 -- "132,196 to 131,382 -- with the state still to count roughly 35,000 more ballots over the next week." In percentage terms, it's Begich 47.41, Stevens 47.12. [ADN update: 40,000 ballots left to be counted.]

Sean Quinn at FiveThirtyEight: "As we've pointed out and has been pointed out elsewhere, the remaining votes come from Begich-friendly districts. Mark Begich is now an overwhelming favorite to win the Alaska Senate seat."

Begich overtakes Stevens in Alaska vote count

By Michael J.W. Stickings

(Updated here -- Begich's lead has grown since I posted this.)

Alaska started counting its roughly 90,000 absentee, early, and "questioned" ballots (or about 30 percent of the total votes cast) today -- you'll remember that something was stinking badly there -- and Democratic challenger Mark Begich, who was ahead in the polls but behind on election night, has overtaken Republican incumbent and convicted felon Ted Stevens.

Stevens had a lead of 3,353 with almost 210,000 votes counted before today. His lead was down to 971 earlier today, with 28,519 additional votes counted, but now Begich is up by 3 -- yes, three:

The elections division still has over 10,000 ballots left to count today and thousands more through next week, but the latest numbers show Mark Begich leading Sen. Ted Stevens 125,019 to 125,016.

The new numbers, reflecting nearly 43,000 absentee ballots counted today, are from all over the state.

If the trend holds, Begich should be able to expand his lead and win.

(Unfortunately, incumbent Republican Don Young, who's corrupt in that specially Stevensesque sort of way, is still well ahead in his House race against Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz.)

But let's not get ahead of ourselves, however much we may wish to bid good riddance to Stevens. There is still much more counting to do.

CNN has the updated results for the three Alaska votes -- President, Senate, House -- here. See also Alaska Elections here (with updated unofficial results here).

Alaska counting ballots

By Michael J.W. Stickings

"Something stinks in Alaska," I wrote last week. Well, we'll see how things stand after today. Here's the latest from the Anchorage Daily News:

Look for the needle to move on Alaska's landmark U.S. Senate race and other tight contests this week, with the Division of Elections planning to tally more than half of the uncounted ballots Wednesday.

For days, the count has been frozen. Sen. Ted Stevens leads Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich by about 3,000 votes with roughly 30 percent of the ballots remaining to be counted, including:

• 61,000 absentee votes.

• More than 20,000 questioned ballots.

• 9,500 early votes.

Of those, at least two-thirds of the absentee votes and nearly all the early votes are expected to be counted Wednesday, said Division Director Gail Fenumiai.

Election workers began poring over questioned ballots Monday in Anchorage, a process that will likely continue through the final count, which is expected Nov. 19.

Meantime, absentee votes are still arriving in the mail and precincts are sending in more questioned ballots.

Stay tuned. We'll be following this closely. (CNN has the full results here, but it may be useful to check Alaska Elections here, with results here, for updates.)

Reflections on the elections

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I've been trying this morning to put my finger on just how I feel about yesterday, to find the right word for it. I still feel overcome, overwhelmed. I'm euphoric, but not deliriously so, immensely happy, but not without a sense of the difficulties and challengies that lie ahead. Joyous, but also sober. Incredulous, on one level, but also humble. Aware of what happened, but not yet fully.

As I've been telling people today, we have been witnesses to history, to something very, very special, and, in the end, I think we all made a difference.

Obama's victory is our victory, and we are right to celebrate it, and to be deeply moved by it. But now comes the even harder part: governing. There is no time to waste.

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I will continue to post on the election today and well into the forseeable future, of course -- for example, I have a "now for the bad news..." post planned for later -- but here, for now, are some quick notes and reflections:

ITEM #1 -- The complete transcript of Obama's victory speech is here.

ITEM #2 -- There was huge voter turnout in this election, relatively speaking: 64 percent, certainly the hightest level in a long, long time. Looking at the figures at the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA), an invaluable resource, I see that it would be just higher than turnout in 1960, which was 63 percent, and therefore the highest level at least since 1948. (For more on turnout in the U.S., see here.) Note, though, that is this much lower than turnout in most other mature western democracies (which mostly have parliamentary systems). One notable exception is, alas, Canada, where there was record low turnout for last month's federal election (under 60 percent of registered voters). And so, despite the obvious importance of the election, despite what seemed to be all the excitement, 36 percent of the electorate didn't vote. That's pretty depressing.

ITEM #3 -- Did anyone else notice the awkwardness between McCain and Palin after McCain's quite gracious concession speech last night? It's like they didn't quite know what to do. McCain extended his arm, as if to shake hands, and they did, but only hesitantly. Then they hugged and air-kissed, but coldly. And that was that. They all just sort of stood there, not quite knowing what to do. Even McCain's handshake with Todd was awkward: quick and done with. McCain may have picked her in part because he was smitten with her (and because the right wanted her on the ticket), but, by now, there certainly seem to be some hard feelings between them. And understandably so. It may even be that they don't really like or respect each other anymore. It was a shotgun wedding, a short, intense marriage, and then, implosion. Last night, they might just as well have been a divorced couple signing papers with their lawyers. Let the recriminations begin in earnest.

ITEM #4 -- I'll have more on this later, but it looks like the Democrats may have been held to 56 seats in the Senate, short of what some of us (most of us?) projected. (I didn't think they'd make it to 60, but I thought 58 or 59 was likely.) Of the four races yet to be decided, the Dems may pick up one more, perhaps Alaska or Oregon, giving them 57, or perhaps even both, giving them 58. And I suppose it's possible that a recount in Minnesota could give them that one, too, bumping them up to 59. Possible, but unlikely.

In Oregon, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith, an Obama-friendly moderate, maintains a 48-46 edge over challenger Jeff Merkley. UPDATE (3:45 pm): With 72 percent reporting, it's now 47-47. Smith is still in front.

In Minnesota, in a much-watched race, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman, once thought to be possible veep pick for McCain, barely leads challenger/comedian Al Franken. With almost 2.9 million votes cast (and with 100 percent reporting), Coleman is up by just 694 votes (which means it's tied 42-42, with an independent candidate pulling in 15). There will be a recount. UPDATE (3:48 pm): Coleman is now up by just 462. What an incredibly close vote.

In Georgia, incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss, one of the more reprehensible Republicans on Capitol Hill, is ahead of challenger Jim Martin 50 to 47 (with a Libertarian pulling in 3). Chambliss has clearly won, but, in Georgia, a run-off vote is held if no candidate wins at least 50 percent of the vote. Actually, Chambliss has 49.9 pecent of the vote, and both he and Martin are already preparing for the run-off. I suspect it is still Chambliss's race to lose.

Finally, in Alaska, incumbent Republican Ted Stevens, a convicted felon, continues to hold off challenger Mark Begich, 48 to 47, with 99 percent reporting. The race has tightened, and still to be counted, as the Anchorage Daily News points out, are about 40,000 absentee ballots (with more still coming in), about 9,000 early votes, and thousands of questioned ballots. "If the lead holds, Stevens will shock the nation and be the first person ever re-elected to the U.S. Senate after being found guilty on criminal charges. Polls had shown the Republican down by at least 8 percentage points on the day before the election." Here's hoping Begich pulls this one out.

ITEM #5 -- It looks like Obama has tapped Rahm Emanuel to be his chief of staff. Emanuel, a long-time Clintonite, is, as you may know, a Democratic Congressman from Illinois. He and Obama apparently have a strong relationship, and he is an insider who would help manage relations with Capitol Hill, but he's not exactly well-liked among the more progressive elements of the Democratic Party. I'm not sure this signifies much. It's too early to conclude that Obama will govern from the "center," or that he will align himself with the less progressive side of the party. What is essential is that Obama have a chief of staff in whom he has full confidence and can place his full trust. Emanuel, in that regard, may be right for the job. He hasn't yet given his answer, or his answer hasn't yet been reported. As Steve Benen suggests, while Emanuel's legislative record may not be terribly to our liking, "his work in the Clinton White House was impressive, and in many ways, he's always been more of an executive branch kind of guy anyway." All I can say is, I hope Obama knows what he's doing. (I suspect he does.) UPDATE (3:54 pm): Emanuel has accepted. Or maybe not -- it's being denied.

ITEM #6 -- Finally, a hilarious headline (and short article) at The Onion: "Black Man Given Nation's Worst Job." Yeah, there's a lot of truth to that. Thankfully, though, it's the right man for the job.

BREAKING NEWS: Ted Stevens found guilty

By Michael J.W. Stickings

UPDATED AND MOVED UP

Pardon my Schadenfreude, but... woo-hoo! Here's CNN:

A jury found U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska guilty Monday of all seven counts in his federal corruption trial.

The jury found Stevens guilty of "knowingly and willfully" scheming to conceal on Senate disclosure forms more than $250,000 in home renovations and other gifts from an Alaska-based oil industry contractor.

Stevens faces a maximum sentence of up to to 35 years in prison -- five years for each of the seven counts.

Legal experts note the judge has the discretion to give Stevens as little as no jail time and probation when he is sentenced.

I'd guess no jail time, but, given his advantaged age, it's probably enough that that he's been found guilty, that a jury of fellow citizens has deemed him corrupt, and that he get probation.

Otherwise, let's hope this puts his Democratic challenger, Mark Begich, over the top.

**********

UPDATE: Needless to say, this is the top story at Memeorandum now -- check it out. In particular, see The Hill, the Times, and the Politico.

According to MSNBC, Stevens will not be dropping out of his Senate race. And, of course, he claims he didn't do it: "I am innocent," he said in a statement. "This verdict is the result of the unconscionable manner in which the Justice Department lawyers conducted this trial. I ask that Alaskans and my Senate colleagues stand with me as I pursue my rights. I remain a candidate for the United States Senate." (Yeah, damn that jury system.)

Of course, the Anchorage Daily News weighs in, too: "It is the highest-profile felony conviction in a sweeping four-year federal investigation into corruption in Alaska politics, and a rare conviction by a jury of a sitting U.S. senator."

**********

Palin's bet-hedging response: "This is a sad day for Alaska and a sad day for Senator Stevens and his family... As Governor of the State of Alaska, I will carefully now monitor the situation and I'll take any appropriate action as needed. In the meantime, I ask the people of Alaska to join me in respecting the workings of our judicial system and I'm confident that Senator Stevens from this point on will do the right thing for the people of Alaska."

Palin bemoaned "the corrupting influence of the big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much of our state." She also added that she's "confident that Senator Stevens from this point on will do the right thing for the people of Alaska," but it's not at all clear what she means by "the right thing." As in the past, she refused to say whether she'll be voting for Stevens.

Not to take away from what Stevens did, but Palin doesn't have much of a leg to stand on when it comes to corruption. She may spin herself as a reformer, but she's very much in the game, just on her own terms.

"I can say with authority that George Bush is the worst president in American history."

By Michael J.W. Stickings

And just who made that statement? Dennis Kucinich? Someone at Kos? Me, perhaps?

No, it was actually Alaska Republican Vic Vickers, who is challenging incumbent U.S. Senator Ted Stevens -- the indicted Ted Stevens, the arrogant, ignorant, corrupt Ted Stevens -- for the Republican nomination.

Yes, it seems that Mr. Vickers, like many Republicans around the country, are actually running against their own party -- and certainly against the president.

As Eve Fairbanks explains, this "American historian" who has "studied every president" (his words) is not your typical Republican: "Vic Vickers is a George-W.-Bush-hating, Exxon-despising, Iraq-War-loathing Republican who wants to 'put an end to the stranglehold that Big Oil' has on Alaska and has an Iraq withdrawal plan -- if the Jordanians and Saudis don't start cutting big checks, you just pack everyone up and come right home."

He's a self-styled "Bull Moose, a Teddy Roosevelt Republican," you see, and that sets him well apart from much of the rest of the GOP. "Pressed to identify a Republican he admires in Alaska besides himself, Vickers could not come up with a single one." Even Governor Sarah Palin, who has "authorized the hunting of wolves by helicopter" and, it seems, the shooting of wolf pups in the head -- "barbaric," according to Vickers, and I agree. And, what's more, one of Vickers's closest allies in Alaska politics is -- gasp! -- a Democrat, Tim June, currently running for the state Senate as a reformer.

And Vickers is not alone:

To establishment Alaska Republicans, Vickers might seem like a peculiarly bad headache, but he's really only part of a larger phenomenon this year: candidates signing up to run on the state or local GOP ticket who then publicly deride the party or pioneer their own esoteric political philosophies. Call them the weakened GOP's opportunistic infections: people like Montana's Bob Kelleher,whose campaign website intially stated he was a member of the Green Party, or North Carolina's Carl Mumpower, who put out a press release calling for Bush's impeachment and, shortly thereafter, put out another release informing the public that angry officials from his own party had kindly requested he "impeach himself."

Of course, these are the exceptions, not the rule. Most Republicans still fall in line behind Bush and remain loyal, well past the point of fault, to their party.

Still, the rise of these anti-Republican Republicans is yet another sign of the deep unpopularity of the Republican Party this year.

If there were ever a good time for the Democrats to capitalize on the problems of their opponents and a political landscape almost entirely in their favour, this is it.

More on Ted Stevens, "patronage-distributing warlord"

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Who, as you likely already know, has been indicted. Steve Benen explains:

Looks like the senator best known for his "bridge to nowhere" may be heading down the bridge to jail.

To be sure, everyone deserves the presumption of innocence, but the details of this scandal look really bad for Stevens. The central focus of all of this stems from Veco Corp., an oil-services company, which generously remodeled Ted Stevens' house in an exclusive ski resort area, adding an additional floor to the home. After the lavish renovation was complete, Stevens steered $170 million in contracts to Veco, which, wouldn't you know it, looked suspicious to the FBI.

Complicating matters, Stevens has simultaneously been under investigation for "a series of earmarks pushed through Congress over the past several years by Stevens for an Alaska nonprofit tied to Trevor McCabe, a former Stevens aide and a business partner of his son, Ben, sources familiar with the investigation said."

But here's the kicker. This could actually be good for the GOP.

Stevens is up for re-election this year and he's running behind Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D)." As TNR's Isaac Chotiner puts it: "[T]his is potentially very good news for the Alaska GOP. If there's any way for them to get Stevens to step down so that some generic Republican can run for the seat, that's their best chance of holding onto it."

He's a stubborn guy, though. He won't step down. He'll win the primary and then face Begich with this scandal, and his indictment, fresh in voters' minds. It's hard to believe that his seat would ever go Democratic -- Alaska is a rather red state and Stevens has done his pork-barrelling best to keep it that way -- but this might just be the year.

**********

For more, as Steve suggests, I recommend checking out TPM Muckraker's overview of the Stevens scandal.

**********

TNR's Barron YoungSmith provides the rather colourful background: "Ted Stevens predates the State of Alaska. In 1953, he drove to Alaska Territory in a Buick, and -- like a modern Al Swearingen -- he built himself into a local luminary, successfully lobbied Congress to make Alaska a state, and then used his position on the Senate Appropriations Committee to transform himself into a patronage-distributing warlord."

**********

See all the reaction over at Memeorandum.

The corruption of Ted Stevens

By Michael J.W. Stickings

This is one of those stories that gives you a nice warm feeling inside. Not because of the corruption that is so rampant throughout politics but because getting caught couldn't have happened to a better guy, Ted Stevens, the arrogant, ignorant, and corrupt Republican senator from Alaska.

Check out Memeorandum for the latest -- the headlines alone are worth checking out, if only because they have "Stevens" and "indict" together. Here's McClatchy with the details:

Sen. Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the U.S. Senate and one of the chamber's most powerful members, was indicted Tuesday in Washington for failing to disclose more than $250,000 worth of gifts that he received from businessmen who were seeking his help on federal issues and projects.

In response, Stevens professed his innocence (of course, they always do): "I have never knowingly submitted a false disclosure form required by law as a U.S. senator. I am innocent of these charges and intend to prove that."

Yeah, good luck... with that.

More later...

WHO'S CRAZIER -TED STEVENS vs ROBERT BYRD ?