NFL 2011: Playoffs -- Divisional Round

By Michael J.W. Stickings

You'll have to forgive me if I'm not quite as interested in the NFL as I was before the Steelers went out last week in Denver. I'll so a post-mortem on the Steelers' season later. I still don't want to think about it too much.

As you may know, if you've been following our picks this year, Richard narrowly won the regular season. He was 177-79, I was 175-81, and The Kid was 162-94. With our scoring system that included weekly locks and upsets, he beat me 191 to 185, with The Kid back at 166.

But that was all pick'em. Now, in the playoffs, we're using the spread and a new scoring system:

-- Wild Card round: 2 points per game;

-- Divisional round: 3 points per game;

-- Conference Finals: 4 points per game; and

-- Super Bowl: 5 points.

And here's how we did last week: 

MJWS: 3-1 = 6 points

The Kid: 3-1 = 6 points

RKB: 1-3 = 2 points

We all got the Giants over the Falcons, but even there I'd note that Richard can't think rationally about his beloved G-Men. The game The Kid and I got wrong was Lions-Saints. We both thought the 10.5-point spread was a bit too high and that the Lions might keep it close in a shootout, at least with some garbage-time fireworks. Needless to say, we underestimated the awfulness of the Lions D, and as good as we thought Brees & Co. was, they were even better.

We're already halfway through the divisional round, but here are the games and our picks:

Saturday

New Orleans (-3.5) at San Francisco

Denver at New England (-13.5)

Sunday

Houston at Baltimore (-7.5)

N.Y. Giants at Green Bay (-7.5)

And our picks:

Stickings' Pickings 

Picks: New Orleans, Denver, Houston, N.Y. Giants.

In standard pick'em, I'm taking all four favourites, but three of the lines are awfully high. But who knows? I went 0-2 yesterday.

I really though the Saints would beat the 49ers, but I've been down on San Fran all year and obviously haven't given them the respect they deserve -- even after they beat the Steelers in Week 15 (though a Steelers team with tons of injuries, including to Big Ben). They have an outstanding D and their offence is just good enough to keep them in every game they play. I've always been higher on Alex Smith than most, and he proved yesterday that he's a solid QB who can do it with his legs as well as with his decent arm. And he's got big-time weapons in Gore, Davis (who atoned for a disappointing season with a huge game yesterday (7 for 180 and 2 TDs), and Crabtree (who scored a TD yesterday and has emerged as a #1 receiver). But, seriously, what can you say about that Saints' D? Terrible. There's so much talent on the other side of the ball, despite all the turnovers yesterday, but the D couldn't stop the Niners when it really mattered, on that last scoring drive that ended with a Smith-to-David TD. Sure, this happens to a lot of teams, including Pittsburgh (notably in the home loss to Baltimore, where a win, in retrospect, would have given the Steelers the division title and the #1 overall seed in the AFC), but the Saints' weaknesses are glaring. New Orleans seemed to have all the momentum coming into the playoffs, and I think a lot of people were expecting (and salivating over the thought of) a Saints-Packers NFC championship game, but, well, full credit to the Niners for proving they're not (entirely) a fluke.

I was going back and forth on the late game yesterday but ended up taking the Tebowners and the points. Could the Pats win by two TDs? Of course. Were they going to? Maybe, but that's a lot of points to lay against a team with a good pass rush and an offence that -- let's be generous -- has been opportunistic and somehow able to overcome an astonishing lack of talent, starting at the QB position. Well, you know what happened. New England crushed Denver. (It takes a lot for me to root for the Pats. Tebow is a lot.) There's really nothing else to say. Brady and the Pats' passing game is awesome, and the Pats' D, while pretty bad all year, somehow manages to do just enough when it matters (though the Broncos didn't play nearly as well as they did against the Steelers -- where were all those dropped passes last week? where was Tebow looking completely flummoxed?). Needless to say, the Ravens will put up a much better fight next week.

Speaking of which, I'm taking the Ravens today. I'm not happy about giving the Texans (with a great running game, a great pass rush, some great LBs, and a very good secondary) so many points, but... wait. No. The game's about to start and I'm flipping to the Texans. I expect Baltimore to win, but, again, 7.5 points is a lot. There's no doubt the Ravens could make life miserable for T.J. Yates today, but they've been a weird team this year, beating some good teams and losing to some awful ones (e.g., Jags), and with the Texans strong at so many positions, I'll take the points. Thank you.

Another tough one later today. I'm taking the Packers to win, but I think the Giants will keep it close, much like their Week 13 battle, a 38-35 win for Green Bay. The question will be whether the Giants' excellent D-line can put enough pressure on Rodgers to knock him off his game. If they can do that, there's no doubt New York can win outright. As much as I may not want to admit it, Eli has emerged this year as a solid Top 10 QB, a notch below the elite (in a tier with Roethlisberger, Romo, and Ryan) but capable of putting up huge numbers and with those winning intangibles that you want in your QB -- what can I say, he's a winner, and he's a fantastic late-game, comeback performer). And if Bradshaw and Jacobs are running well, watch out. I still can't pick against Rodgers given all the talent he has in the passing game, and the Packers have a D that can force turnovers, but this one should be close.

**********

Watching the Texans-Ravens game... Seriously? What the hell was Jacoby Jones thinking? The Texans are looking good, the Ravens are struggling on offence early on, and you try to grab that bouncing ball with a Ravens player in your face? What a stupid, stupid move. Just the sort of thing that could turn this game in a hurry. Yup, TD Ravens. 7-3. You can't make mistakes like that in the playoffs, or ever, especially against teams like the Ravens, who make you pay.

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: New Orleans, Denver, Houston, N.Y. Giants.

New Orleans over San Francisco: Though I would love to see my Giants make it to the Super Bowl this year, my guess is that it's going to be the Saints for the NFC. Brees is so hot right now that I just don't see the Niners stopping him. I also wouldn't be surprised for Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles to have solid games on the ground, which will only make Brees more dangerous. In the end, the Niners just aren't going to be able to keep up offensively, so I expect a high-scoring game with New Orleans running away with it in the end. 

Denver over New England (with the points): Look, I have no doubt Brady will find a way to win this game, but 13.5 points is too much of a margin. Tebow will no doubt make this one interesting. As a sidebar, I saw a program on the NFL Network this week about the six QBs drafted ahead of Brady when he came into the league. The bottom line was that few of them could stand the bright lights of the big stage the way Brady could, though, on paper, they all looked better than Brady. I'm not saying I'm a true believer in Tebow, but the kid can turn it on when the whole world is watching, and I expect to see that this weekend. Like I said, New England wins, but the Broncos and Tebow will keep it close. 

Baltimore over the Texans: This will be a very close game, which I'll call for the Ravens, though I am not sure why. Let's just say that Ray Rice plus home field gives it to the Ravens. 

New York over Green Bay: There was a time when this would have been a sentimental pick just because I'm a Giants fan, but no longer. I really think they can take this game. The Giant's D is healthy and creating havoc for QBs, which I think they'll do for Rodgers. And Eli is playing some of the best football of his life. If the Giants can continue to run, as they have recently, which will help keep Rodgers off the field, that could be the difference. Whatever happens today, the Giants have salvaged a season that looked like a stinker a while ago. I'm proud of them. And then, after the Giants win this, they'll lose to the Saints. Oh, well.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: New Orleans, Denver, Baltimore, Green Bay.

(His only comment to me was the Saints "big-time" over the Niners. Yes, he too was wrong.)

NFL 2011: Playoffs -- Wild Card Round

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Congratulations, Richard.

Yes, RKB won our little three-man pick'em competition here. Let's look at the final regular season results:

Week 17 

RKB: 13-3 = 13 points 
MJWS: 11-5 (plus upset) = 13 points

The Kid: 12-4 = 12 points 

Regular Season -- Final 

RKB: 177-79 (10 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 191 points

MJWS: 175-81 (9 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 185 points
The Kid: 162-94 (7 upsets right, 5 locks wrong) = 166 points

You know what? We all did really well. Even The Kid, who got off to a slow start but kept pace with us the rest of the way. And along the way I thought we offered some excellent analysis. Personally, I think we're at least good enough for ESPN's NFL Countdown. (No, I don't take that as a self-compliment.)

But let's move on. (Richard's ego has already swelled too much.) It's the playoffs! And we're going to keep this competition going through the Super Bowl, though now we're going to be picking against the spread -- with a new per-game points system:

-- Wild Card round: 2 points per game;

-- Divisional round: 3 points per game;

-- Conference Finals: 4 points per game; and

-- Super Bowl: 5 points.

Here are this weekend's games, with the lines we're using:

Saturday

Cincinnati at Houston (-4)

Detroit at New Orleans (-10.5)

Sunday

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (-3.5)

Pittsburgh (-8) at Denver

And our picks:

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Houston, Detroit, N.Y. Giants, Denver.

I'm a little worried about going with T.J. Yates, but Houston has enough talent everywhere else to win fairly easily against an inexperienced Bengals team (with a bright future, just not a bright today). Look for Foster and Tate and whoever else is running the ball for the Texans to have big games, as well as for the Texans to put enough pressure on Dalton to throw him off his game. Unless Yates has a complete meltdown, in which case we'd get Delhomme (who has extensive playoff experience), I just don't see how Cincy even keeps this close.

There's no way I'd be picking against high-flying Brees & Co. in a pick'em, but 10.5 points is just too much in what should be a shootout. Even if the Saints go up big, the Lions could make it close in garbage time, at least coming within a TD.

I'll add some commentary on Sunday's games tomorrow. Suffice it to say that I'm way down on my beloved Steelers.

Update: Alright, it's Sunday, about 2:52 pm. The Giants are up 7-2 with the ball inside the Falcons' 5.

I took the Giants in this one mainly because of their outstanding d-line, particularly Pierre-Paul. My concern, from a Giants perspective, was the secondary. If the Falcons' o-line could do even a decent job protecting Ryan, Atlanta could get the ball down the field to White, Jones, and Gonzalez, opening up the running game for Turner as well. But credit that secondary. White has only two catches for eight yards so far, and Atlanta's often high-flying passing game has been largely shut down. Of course, if the Falcons had been able to convert that fourth-and-short in Giants territory in the first half -- and it looked like they did, it was just a bad spot -- things might be different now. 10-2 Giants. Manning was finally able to throw the ball downfield on that last drive. I suspect this game will open up now, and on the current drive Ryan is moving the ball well.

Now... Steelers-Broncos. Grantland's Barnwell made a good case the other day for a Broncos win. With the spread as big as it is, I'm definitely taking Denver. The Steelers have hardly been a dominant team this year, and this one could be another anxiety-producing affair. Certainly Pittsburgh has the talent on D to shut down Tebow, but the Steelers are vulnerable to running QBs and he may do just enough to keep the Broncos in the game, particularly with injuries to the Steelers. Notably, safety Ryan Clark, the team's leading tackler, will be out due to a serious illness that threatens his health playing at high altitudes, and the two OLBs, Harrison and Woodley, continue to nurse lingering problems.

My bigger concerns are on the other side of the ball. Big Ben clearly isn't healthy. His ankle sprain has basically made him immobile, and he can't even step into this throws. And with the Broncos throwing Miller and Dumervil at him, he could be under pressure all day, unable ever to get in rhythm and spread the field with his great receivers. Add to this the fact that Mendenhall is out and that the early-season injury problems to the o-line have returned and it's a recipe for disaster for the Steelers at Mile High. All it might take is one late-game play by Tebow, or one long kick from Prater. Yeah, I'm going with Denver and taking the points, but I think Denver might win this outright.

I'm already sick to my stomach.

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Cincinnati, Detroit, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati over Houston: I'll pick the Bengals to win this one. The solid Cincy D is going to give Houston stand-in QB T.J. Yates fits. Come on. The kid has done well enough at times, but this is the playoffs. Bengals QB Andy Dalton has also done well in his rookie effort -- 20 TDs with 13 interceptions. He should hold up fine. In a low-scoring game. Houston by 4? Don't think so.

Detroit over New Orleans: I think New Orleans will win this game, but not by 10.5. Very high-scoring game, maybe a repeat of the Lions-Packers game. Could see both teams score 40 or more points, but the margin of victory for the Saints will be closer to 7.  Also look for Darren Sproles to have a big game. While Detroit is looking for Brees to throw the ball downfield to Graham and Colston, look for Brees to be dumping it off to Sproles for good yardage. Definitely a back-and-forth day with no huge leads at any time.

Giants over Falcons (and beating the 3.5-point spread): The Giants are peaking at the right time. They've got a respectable running game back with Bradshaw in the lineup. I love the way Eli is throwing the ball and the D is getting healthy at the right time. Sure, I'm worried about the Giants secondary so I don't think this will be a low-scoring game. I'm just expecting the New York pass rush to make it hard for Ryan to tee up for those shots down the field. That'll be the key. If the Giants' pass rush shows up, game over. If not, it'll be a long day for New York.

Pittsburgh over Denver (beating the 8-point spread): I know Steelers' RB Mendenhall is gone for the duration and Big Ben is not at his best, but I can't see Tebow having much of a game against the Steelers. And this is where playoff experience is going to matter for Pitt. Without getting fancy, it'll come down to a mature and proud franchise showing the kneeling boy how it's down. Last point is that defences are figuring Tebow out. You have to make him throw from the pocket, which he can't do. If you don't think the Steelers get this, you are wrong. Look for some terrible Tebow passing numbers for this game, like 5-10 for 57 yards.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Houston, Detroit, N.Y. Giants, Denver.

NFL 2011: Week 17 picks

By Michael J.W. Stickings

So here we are. The last week of the season. Alas.

On the one hand, it means the playoffs are coming up, and after a long (and weird) regular season it's time to move on (not least because my beloved Steelers are, thankfully, playoff-bound, as either the second or fifth seed in the AFC). On the other hand, we're nearing the end of the season, and facing a long offseason, and even thinking about not having football makes me depressed. (I know the NFL never sleeps. Yes, a lot goes on in the offseason, and once the season's over I'll start focusing on the draft. Still, there's nothing like the real thing.)

Anyway, I don't have much time to do much in the way of analysis. I didn't even do a Week 16 post, what with most of the games falling on Christmas Eve. (I'm writing this on Saturday, New Year's Eve, the games tomorrow.) But let's get going. Our Week 17 picks are below, but first we need to play catch up to bring us right up to date.

(As you may know, my associate editor Richard, a friend of ours nicknamed Comfortable Kid, and I are tracking our picks this year, with posts going up each Sunday at 11 am. We get one point for each correct pick, along with two bonus points if we get our Upset of the Week right. If we get our Lock of the Week wrong, we lose two points as a penalty.)

**********

Here's how we were doing after Week 15:

Week 15 

MJWS: 10-6 (plus upset, minus lock) = 10 points

RKB: 9-7 (plus upset, minus lock) = 9 points
The Kid: 8-8 (minus lock) = 6 points

Yeah, we all took the Packers as our lock. Who knew?

Season through Week 15

RKB: 155-69 (10 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 169 points
MJWS: 153-71 (7 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 159 points
The Kid: 140-84 (7 upsets right, 5 locks wrong) = 144 points

**********

Here were our picks last week (Week 16):

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Houston, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Kansas City, New England, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, Washington, Carolina, Baltimore, San Diego, Dallas, San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans.

Lock of the Week: Green Bay.

No way the Pack were going to lose two in a row.

Upset of the Week: Buffalo.

After getting tamed by Brady and Co. at home the week before, Tebow-time grinds to a halt in Western NY. (Yeah, I got this one right.)

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Houston, Denver, Arizona, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Miami, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Washington, Carolina, Baltimore, San Diego, San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans.

Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh

Upset of the Week: Miami

Denver over Buffalo at Buffalo, and that is the part that makes it tricky, Buffalo this time of year. Tebow can't throw at the best of times, but if the weather is bad, well, you get it. It'll be up to Tim to run with the rock. I guess I'm assuming that he'll be able to do that enough to win.

I'm picking Arizona over the Bengals. The Cardinals have won six of their last seven, and Arizona still has Fitzgerald. The Bengals do have the better defense, I just like Arizona to keep on winning.

Jacksonville over Tennessee. As bad as Jacksonville is at throwing the ball, their D will shut down Tennessee's passing game. Don't have a great answer on this, but I think Jacksonville wins.

Chiefs over the Raiders. Chiefs have been all over the map this year, but they are pulling together at the right time.

Miami over New England. You heard me. Miami has done right by me in this little game picking exercise and New England doesn't scare anybody these days. Miami in my upset.

Pittsburgh over St. Louis. Yes.

Philadelphia will beat Dallas. I like the Eagles right now and think that Romo will tank. I need to believe this, mind you.

I'm taking Washington over Minnesota. Rex Grossman is hot and cold, but I'm guessing he has a good game.

Carolina over the Bucs, because the Bucs are just bad right now.

Baltimore will beat Cleveland, but I won't say its obvious, not after Thursday's Indy win.

San Diego over Detroit may be a stretch, but the Chargers are playing well and Detroit is not as good as advanced billing.

San Francisco should beat Seattle and Green Bay is not going to lose to Chicago, same with New Orleans over Atlanta.

Finally, my Giants should beat the Jets just on the off chance that there is a god and he will want to shut Rex Ryan up.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Houston, Denver, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Kansas City, New England, N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh, Washington, Carolina, Baltimore, San Diego, Dallas, San Francisco, Green Bay, New Orleans.

Lock of the Week: Green Bay.

Packers are humbled and Chicago is playing their 2nd-string QB, 3rd-string RB. Depending on what happens with San Francisco, I would be careful with Aaron Rodgers here. We might see him finish his day after the first half against this pass rush.

Upset of the Week: None

I don't have one this week. By the rules that govern what's defined as a potential upset, I can't see any teams upsetting. Unfortunately, I can't just jot down "Denver" here anymore. People seem to be believing a bit in Tebow and the Broncos, but I bet that fades after we finish celebrating the birthday of Tebow's best buddy. From what I hear, Jesus seemed like a nice guy and all, but did anyone see that first TD Tim scored last week against New England? Love that guy.

**********

Here's how we're doing after Week 16:

Week 16

MJWS: 11-5 (plus upset) = 13 points

The Kid: 10-6 = 10 points

RKB: 9-7 = 9 points

Season through Week 16

RKB: 164-76 (10 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 178 points
MJWS: 164-76 (8 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 172 points
The Kid: 150-90 (7 upsets right, 5 locks wrong) = 154 points

**********

Here are today's games:

Detroit at Green Bay

San Francisco at St. Louis

N.Y. Jets at Miami

Chicago at Minnesota

Buffalo at New England

Carolina at New Orleans

Washington at Philadelphia

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Tennessee at Houston

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

Kansas City at Denver

San Diego at Oakland

Seattle at Arizona

Dallas at N.Y. Giants

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Detroit, San Francisco, N.Y. Jets, Chicago, New England, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Atlanta, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Denver, San Diego, Seattle, N.Y. Giants.

Fantasy is over -- and, yes, I won my hardcore league (woo-hoo!) -- but this is anything but a throwaway week for the NFL. A lot matters. I'll let Bill Simmons explain...

Okay, got that? Mostly, it's just about playoff seeding. Both the Steelers and Ravens will be in the playoffs, for example, but the AFC North title is at stake today. The two teams are tied, with the Ravens holding the tiebreaker, but a Pittsburgh win along with a Baltimore loss means the division goes to the Steelers. (I don't think that'll happen. I'm taking the Ravens over the Bengals.) And the difference between winning the losing the division is huge. The team that wins will likely have the #2 seed and a first-round bye, while the team that ends up second will have the #5 seed, meaning a wild card game out west in Denver or Oakland. The Raiders aren't great, but do you really want to go up against Tebow and the strong Broncos D at this point? I'd much rather have the week off and then (likely) play Houston in the next round.

But there are still a couple of playoff positions to determine. Will Denver or Oakland win the AFC West and get that #4 seed in the AFC? Will the Bengals or Jets be the second AFC wild card? And, of course, will the Cowboys or Giants, facing each other in today's even more overhyped than usual Sunday night game, win the always overhyped NFC East and grab the NFC's #4 seed? (My answers: Denver, Cincinnati, Giants.)

Lock of the Week: New England.

It's usually hard to know what to do with the elite teams the last week of the season because most of them end up resting their starters. But not so much this year. New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, San Francisco... they're all still playing for something.

The exceptions are Houston (not really an elite team, but close), which has the #3 AFC seed all sown up (to its benefit, as it needs to rest its top offensive stars, Foster and Johnson), and of course Green Bay, which is the top team in the NFC.

Anyway, I'll go with the Pats here. They should be able to beat the Bills at home in an early game (and then wait to see how the Ravens and Steelers do later). The Niners at Rams is also a solid lock, and I suspect the Falcons will crush the Bucs (unless Detroit wins and Atlanta ends up resting its starters).

Upset of the Week: Tennessee.

Now here's where it gets interesting. I've been tempted all week to go with Detroit over Green Bay (that is, over Green Bay's second-, third-, and fourth-string units). And I think the Lions have to win to keep the #5 seed over the Falcons, who are a game back (and who will likely beat Tampa).

But what about the Titans? They still have something to play for, and they're playing the Texans, who don't.

Or the Bengals? I'm going with the Ravens there, but a Cincy win would hardly be all that surprising.

Or the Cowboys? I'm going with the Giants there, but you know that'll be a tough game, and, if Romo can play through his injury, potentially a high-scoring affair that Dallas can win.

Or, you know what, the Colts? Yes, the friggin' Colts. You have to give them some credit, they're still playing hard and doing their best not to Suck for Luck (maybe out of justifiably deferential respect for Peyton, whom the players seem to want back in 2012).

I need to make up six points against Richard this week. That's not likely, but it means I need to take some risks, including with my upset. Ah, let's go with the Titans.

(I'm already stressing too much: Jets-Fins? Bears-Vikes? Bolts-Raiders? Hawks-Cards? Tough games to pick, and I'm going back and forth on all of 'em.)

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Detroit, San Francisco, Miami, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Atlanta, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle, N.Y. Giants.

Lock of the Week: San Francisco.

Upset of the Week: Detroit.

Detroit over Green Bay: Given that the Pack have clinched the No. 1 seed, it's unlikely they will play their heavy hitters. I guess this could also mean the Lions could sit Stafford and Johnson, but I doubt they will. My guess is that it's Detroit over the Green Bay scrubs.

San Francisco over St. Louis: The Niners will be playing to lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC. That's all we need to know. Probably no Bradford in this is one either, which puts an exclamation point on the prediction.

Miami over the New York Jets: I really thought the Jets sucked against the Giants last week, especially Mark Sanchez. On top of that, Miami did give New England a hard time. The Jets are playing for a long-shot playoff spot, but I think they've already packed it in. Miami may have given up on their post-season hopes many months ago, but they've played well lately and seem to have some pride in what they're doing.

Minnesota over Chicago: Chicago is playing with McCown at QB and Kahlil Bell at RB. Got it?

New England over Buffalo: A win secures home-field advantage throughout the playoffs for New England. And then there is that little of matter of avenging the earlier loss to the Bills.

New Orleans over Carolina: Yes, Cam Newton is very good, but the Saints could be playing for the No. 2 seed depending on the 49er game. Brees is pretty fired up after last week's record setting week. Gotta think they'll beat Cam and team.

Philadelphia over Washington: Still can't believe I picked the Eagles to go all the way this year. I guess I bought the hype. Good to see that great individual talent isn't enough and that team cohesion means something. Having said that, Vick is healthy and the Eagles are going to want to go out with a win, more than the Redskins.

Jacksonville over Indianapolis: Playing for the No. 1 overall pick. Not the kind of thing you want to be doing. Maurice Jones-Drew should be able to run all over Indy, though the Colts can surprise. With two teams as bad as these, who knows? I say Jacksonville.

Tennessee over Houston: The Titans need a win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Texans are playing for nothing, which means they could rest their starters. If they do, and I think they will, I predict a close game that Tennessee wins.

Atlanta over Tampa Bay: The Falcons are playing for playoff positioning so will show up. Tampa Bay? What can we say? Let it end soon, please.

Baltimore over Cincinnati: Should be close. Baltimore is trying to clinch the AFC North and No. 2 seed. Cincinnati has that good "D." You never know which Ravens team will show up, but I'm guessing the good one for this game.

Pittsburgh over Cleveland: The Steelers are also playing for a shot at the AFC North title. Big Ben will likely get a rest, but they don't need him to beat Cleveland.

Denver over Kansas City: I've toyed with loving Tebow, but can't do it. Did we see the real Timbo last week? Perhaps. Kyle Orton will want this one, a chance to beat the team that gave up on him.

San Diego over Oakland: Rivers hasn't played that well of late, but I like him to pull this one out. Oakland may still be in the hunt, but I see them coming up short. Just a feeling.

Seattle over Arizona: Two teams with nothing to play for, always fun games to pick. Seattle can impress every now and then. Skelton has done okay for the Cards. I don't know, or care.

New York Giants over Dallas Cowboys: The Giants are starting to run the ball well, and that has been the missing piece all year. When Bradshaw is in the lineup and running well, Jacobs runs well too, and Eli is a better passer. Speaking of Eli, great job last week against the Jets. Look for Jason Pierre-Paul to have a monster game for the G-Men. This kid just keeps getting better and with so much on the line, he'll have a breakout game. But I have no doubt it will be close, close enough to kill me.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Green Bay, San Francisco, Miami, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Houston, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Denver, San Diego, Arizona, N.Y. Giants.

Lock of the Week: New England.

Upset of the Week: Cincinnati.

Baltimore seems to be shakier on the road. I think the Bengals win here.

NFL 2011: Week 15 picks

By Michael J.W. Stickings

So... Week 15. Where did the time go?

I won't offer much commentary now -- I'm writing this Saturday night, watching the Dallas-Tampa game (an easy one for the Cowboys), and I'm hoping to get to The Tree of Life tonight -- but I may add some updates later today during the games.

Needless to say, I'm focused on the Steelers tomorrow night in San Francisco, a game that normally would be one of the year's highlights but that finds the Steelers in a tough spot with tough decisions to make. Consider:

The Steelers and Ravens are currently tied atop the AFC North at 10-3, but Baltimore holds the tiebreaker, having won both games against Pittsburgh this year. The Ravens play the Chargers this evening. If they win, they should have the division all sown up, with games remaining against the Browns and Bengals. Cincinnati is still in the playoff hunt and could put up a fight on the last weekend of the regular season, but I see the Ravens winning out.

If the Steelers are thinking that way, and they should be, they should rest their injured players on Monday. Even with a loss, they'd be in the #1 wild card spot, meaning the fifth seed in the AFC. The way it looks now, they'd go to Denver to play the Tebowners, who will likely win the AFC West but finish behind the other three division winners. That's hardly an ideal situation, but the reality is that the Steelers likely won't win their division and need to prepare themselves for the playoffs as a wild card team. Harrison is already out with his ridiculous one-game suspension as Roger Goodell's scapegoat (McCoy was a runner and Harrison tackled him. Period.) Woodley, their other great OLB, missed several games with a bad hamstring and had to leave last week's game early. Pouncey, their great young center, has been ruled out. And Roethlisberger, of course, has an ankle injury and, should he play, would be severely limited and at risk to be knocked out for the season.

So why risk it on Monday? The Steelers can still make it a competitive game with their backups at those positions. It just doesn't make any sense to go all out for a win.

Unless...

Well, unless the Ravens lose. Then a Steelers win over the 49ers would put them in the driver's seat to win the division, with remaining games against the lowly Rams and Browns, two games they should win. And finishing first in the division, with a shot at finishing first in the conference, or at least in the top two, which would mean a first-round bye, would be huge for them. Even finishing third, if it came to that, would mean a home playoff game against the sixth seed, likely the Jets or Bengals.

So there's a lot to lose but also a lot to win. And it all depends, in my view, on how the Ravens do today. Or, rather, it should depend on how the Ravens do. I'm certainly not saying Pittsburgh should roll over and lose. I know they'd play hard no matter what -- and, again, even with their backups they could beat San Francisco (though I worry about Batch starting at QB, as I'm just not sure if he could get the offence going against such a strong defensive team). What I'm saying is that they shouldn't be stupid. They need Big Ben in particular for the playoffs. Why risk it?

Okay, the picks...

As you may know, my associate editor Richard, a friend of ours nicknamed Comfortable Kid, and I are tracking our picks this year, with posts going up each Sunday at 11 am. We get one point for each correct pick, along with two bonus points if we get our Upset of the Week right. If we get our Lock of the Week wrong, we lose two points as a penalty.

I'm a few weeks behind in tracking the picks, but I'm pretty sure Richard is still ahead by a fairly big margin. I'll do an update later today.

**********

Okay, it's Saturday, December 24, Week 16. I'm finally getting around to updating the standings, going week by week. Here's how things stood after Week 14:

Last week 

RKB: 14-2 (plus upset) = 16 points

MJWS: 13-3 (plus upset) = 15 points
The Kid: 13-3 (plus upset) = 15 points

Great week for all of us. As for me, it's hard to make up ground on Richard when even a 13-3 week loses me a point.

Season to date 

RKB: 146-62 (9 upsets right, 2 locks wrong) = 160 points
MJWS: 143-65 (6 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 149 points
The Kid: 132-77 (7 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 138 points

**********

As for the early games this week, we all picked Atlanta over Jacksonville on Thursday (correct!) and Dallas over Tampa Bay on Saturday (also correct!) -- two easy picks.

Here are the rest of this week's games:

Miami at Buffalo

Seattle at Chicago

Tennessee at Indianapolis

Green Bay at Kansas City

Cincinnati at St. Louis

New Orleans at Minnesota

Washington at N.Y. Giants

Carolina at Houston

Detroit at Oakland

New England at Denver

N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia

Cleveland at Arizona

Baltimore at San Diego

Pittsburgh at San Francisco

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Buffalo, Seattle, Tennessee, Green Bay, Cincinnati, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, Houston, Detroit, New England, N.Y. Jets, Arizona, San Diego, San Francisco.

I'm not sure about Buffalo over Miami. Honestly, the way the Bills have been playing, this could be yet another embarrassment for them. But Miami seems to have down a bit from their mid-season highs and will be playing on the road in the cold. There's a new coach there, and that could give the Fins a sense of urgency, with the players trying to solidify roster spots next year, but I just think this could be the week Buffalo returns to early-season form with a win.

Will the Jets beat the Eagles? I think so, but the Iggles are at home and seem to have a bit of life in them after last week's solid win over Miami.

Yes, I'm taking the Chargers. They played well in easy wins over the Jaguars and Bills but will have a much tougher time against a much better Ravens team. Still, this may be yet another late-season surge in San Diego (if too little too late this time) and they seem to be clicking on offence. Normally, I'd be rooting for the Ravens to lose. This week, I'm not so sure. Consider my reasoning above: If they lose, the door opens for Pittsburgh to take the division. But what if the Steelers go all-out for a win on Monday and still lose -- and in the process Big Ben, assuming he's playing, is knocked out? Wouldn't it be better for the Ravens to win and the Steelers to hold back a bit in anticipation of getting the wild card?

Okay, I'm over-thinking this. I want Baltimore to lose. Period. (But I know I'm going out on a limb by picking San Diego. With Ray Rice in top form and Flacco usually doing enough in the passing game, the Ravens have what it takes to expose a generally weak Chargers D.)

But, yes, I'm taking San Francisco over Pittsburgh. (As much as I love the Black 'n' Gold, I've got to be a realist.)

Lock of the Week: Green Bay.

I might have taken Atlanta, but I can't now pick them retroactively. It has to be the Pack, though. Again.

Upset of the Week: Seattle.

Should I take San Diego here? No. I'm picking them, but I don't have much confidence in the pick. I think Carolina can beat Houston, mainly because Cam Newton can make it happen even against good defences, but the Texans are at home and have a great running game in Foster and Tate, while the Panthers have a terrible run defence -- you do the math. The Kid's picking Denver. Of course he is. The guy loves Tebow. And I suppose it's possible. Certainly Denver's D has been performing well and could slow down Brady & Co. a bit. But just a bit won't be enough. Even with the Pats struggling on D, the Tebowners won't be able to put up enough points to keep up. Washington over the Giants? You know what? Maybe. Just maybe. I'm not picking the 'Skins, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if they pulled this one out.

No, it's got to be Seattle. Even on the road, where they don't have their incredible home-field advantage, they can beat a banged-up team like the Bears (no Cutler, no Forte). I really like what I've seen from the 'Hawks lately, particularly from Marshawn Lynch (what a relentless RB -- we've seen glimpses of this in the past but nothing quite like this) and their young, talented receiving corps (especially Doug Baldwin). There's too much inconsistency at QB with Tarvaris Jackson, but they seem to be coming together under coach Pete Carroll. The Bears have a good D and won't give up many points, but in what should a low-scoring affair (because Chicago's mostly inept on offence these days) I see Seattle coming out on top.

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Miami, Seattle, Tennessee, Green Bay, Cincinnati, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, Houston, Detroit, New England, N.Y. Jets, Arizona, Baltimore, San Francisco.

Lock of the Week: Green Bay.

Upset of the Week: Miami.

Relatively easy week to pick, I think. The no-brainers? Dallas, Tennessee, Green Bay, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Houston, and Detroit.

Other than that, I'm picking Miami over Buffalo as my upset, though it's not much of an upset. I say Brady beats Tebow. The Jets will beat Philly, because Philly sucks, and Fitzgerald beats Cleveland.

And take your coin out for Baltimore vs. San Diego and Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco. I'm going with Baltimore and San Fran.

As for my Giants, if they don't beat Washington, they don't deserve to win the division. Simple as that. I'm going to assume they win.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Miami, Chicago, Tennessee, Green Bay, Cincinnati, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, Houston, Detroit, Denver, N.Y. Jets, Arizona, San Diego, Pittsburgh.

Lock of the Week: Green Bay.

Upset of the Week: Denver.

That's it. Enjoy the games!

NFL 2011: Week 14 picks

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I'm still not over that Thursday game. What an incredible performance by Big Ben. Of course, of course, the game shouldn't have been that close, but, well, I'll take the win. (Whether Roethlisberger will be well enough to play next Monday in San Francisco is another matter, and there are also injury worries with Pouncey and Woodley, but I'm trying to enjoy my Sunday without worrying about my beloved Steelers.)

Anyway, after struggling mid-season, I've bounced back with 13-3 and 12-4 records the past two weeks. I'm especially happy about how last week went. In our picks/preview post last Sunday, I wrote that I could see -- excluding the Thursday game, Philadelphia at Seattle, which I had seen as a toss-up) -- three locks (New England, San Francisco, and Baltimore), all of whom won, and 12 possible upsets. It's not that I picked 12 upsets, just that I thought it was unpredictable week and that the key was to pick the right upsets. And so I thought I did well to end up 12-4. And I would have gone 13-3 if Dallas (or, more specifically, idiot coach Jason Garrett) hadn't decided to ice its own kicker, leading to an OT win for Arizona.

Okay, enough patting myself on the back. Let's get to the picks...

As you may know, my associate editor Richard, a friend of ours nicknamed Comfortable Kid, and I are tracking our picks this year, with posts going up each Sunday at 11 am. We get one point for each correct pick, along with two bonus points if we get our Upset of the Week right. If we get our Lock of the Week wrong, we lose two points as a penalty. 

I'm a couple of weeks behind in tracking the picks, but I'm pretty sure Richard is still ahead by a fairly big margin. I'll do an update later today.

**********

Okay, it's Saturday, December 24, Week 16. I'm finally getting around to updating the standings, going week by week. Here's how things stood after Week 13:

Last week

RKB: 13-3 (plus upset) = 15 points
MJWS: 12-4 (plus upset) = 14 points
The Kid: 11-5 (plus upset) = 13 points

Season to date

RKB: 132-60 (8 upsets right, 2 locks wrong) = 144 points
MJWS: 130-62 (5 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 134 points
The Kid: 119-73 (6 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 123 points

**********

Anyway, here are this weeks games (not including Cleveland at Pittsburgh on Thursday -- we all took the Steelers, by the way):

Houston at Cincinnati

Minnesota at Detroit

New Orleans at Tennessee

Philadelphia at Miami

Kansas City at N.Y. Jets

New England at Washington

Atlanta at Carolina

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville

Indianapolis at Baltimore

Chicago at Denver

San Francisco at Arizona

Oakland at Green Bay

Buffalo at San Diego

N.Y. Giants at Dallas

St. Louis at Seattle

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Houston, Detroit, New Orleans, Philadelphia, N.Y. Jets, New England, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Denver, San Francisco, Green Bay, San Diego, N.Y. Giants, Seattle.

So real surprises here. It's nothing like last week.

The two games I'm not at all sure of are Texans-Bengals and Giants-Cowboys. I'm taking the road teams:

-- Houston still has Foster and Tate to make up for T.J. Yates and what is now a questionable passing game, as well as an excellent D. I expect Dalton to struggle.

-- Both the Giants and Cowboys have been wildly inconsistent this year, but the Giants are returning to health with Bradshaw back, providing some necessary balance on offence, while the Cowboys are light at WR with ongoing injury concerns and may have Ware out on D. You never really know how Eli and Romo will do, but I just think the Giants are the slightly better team right now.

Lock of the Week: Baltimore.

The Ravens have lost to a couple of bad teams this year (Jags, 'Hawks), but they won't lose this one, not with the Steelers putting the pressure on with their win on Thursday. A win would allow the Ravens to keep pace, but with the tiebreaker they'll be in first. Oh, and the Colts are terrible.

The 49ers should beat the Cards handily, but I prefer not to take road locks and, well, so you really trust the Niners even now?

The Pats should crush the 'Skins, but, again, they're on the road.

Who am I forgetting? Oh, right, the Pack. In case you haven't noticed, they're good. And, of course, they'll clobber the Raiders. But I'll still take the Ravens here.

Upset of the Week: Philadelphia.

I have little doubt that the Panthers can beat the Falcons at home, and that's my other big upset this week, but I just think the Eagles will finally put it together with Vick back behind center. And the Fins aren't as good as they've looked the past few weeks. I feel like an idiot taking Philly after how they looked last week in Seattle, losing 31-14, and they're on the road again today, but, look, I'm still buying their talent.

Another possibility: Jags. Gabbert has been mostly awful this year, but their D has been decent and MJD is still an elite RB. And the Bucs aren't good. (I know, that's not exactly the most nuanced analysis you'll ever read, but sometimes it's just that simple.)

Yet another possibility: Bears. Actually, this could go the other way. With Cutler and Forte out for Chicago, the Tebowners may well be a lock this week. But... no. The Bears still have a good D and it's not like the Broncos can put up huge numbers with Tebow running the offence. (They scored 35 last week, you scream with enraged Tebownian righteousness? Sorry, but the Vikes don't count. They're awful.) I'm going with the Tebowners largely because of their resurgent D, but this could be close enough to give the Bears a chance.

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Houston, Detroit, New Orleans, Philadelphia, N.Y. Jets, New England, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Denver, San Francisco, Green Bay, San Diego, N.Y. Giants, Seattle. 

Lock of the Week: New England.

Upset of the Week: Philadelphia.

Houston over Cincy: Great stat on this one is that the Bengals haven't beaten anybody that still has a winning record. Houston can run the ball and they can play D, with or without a QB problem. Texans.

Detroit over Minnesota: No mystery here... Detroit.

New Orleans over Tennessee: This could be close. The Saints have had problems on the road, but they have put up some points, and the last time I looked, Hasselbeck was still playing QB for the Titans. New Orleans.

Philadelphia over Miami: I'm picking this as my upset this week. I've done very well riding the Dolphins as my upset team on a few different occasions. I watched them play the Giants tight earlier in the year, as a winless team, and knew they were about to turn things around. Still, I think the Eagles are going to have a good game here based simply on a need to repair their shredded pride. No Dream Team, not much of a team at all, but individual talent that will pull this one out.

Jets over K.C.: Oh, man, the Jets. Ryan and Sanchez. I hate picking them, but K.C. doesn't beat many winning teams, and when they do they're in distress like Oakland for Palmer's first game and Chicago without Cutler and Forte. Yeah, the Jets will win.

New England over Washington: There was a time you'd laugh this off, but this ain't your father's Pats, not when the Colts could make it close. Then again, Grossman at QB won't help Washington, so New England.

Falcons over Carolina: Yeah, the Falcons should win, but Cam Newton is giving everyone heartburn. Okay, Falcons win, but I won't be surprised if it goes the other way.

Tampa over Jax: Freeman over Gabbert. My big prediction is that Tebow plays in Jacksonville next year. It sure as hell wont be Blaine Gabbert, whoever it is.

Baltimore over Indy: 'Nuff said.

Denver over Chicago: My colleague, The Kid, has been touting Tebow all year, so he's getting a late-season laugh, though it won't be the last laugh. The Kid also doesn't think the rest of us have the right to pick him to lead the Broncs to victory because we had previously been so unkind. Hey, I never said Tebow had no talent, only that he was not a year-after-year QB option in the NFL. He'll win some games, including this one against Chicago.

San Francisco over Arizona: I hate to pick against Arizona. What a strange franchise. They can score some points. Can't pick against the 'Niners, though.

Green Bay over Oakland: Yes.

San Diego over Buffalo: Two 5-7 teams, potentially heading in totally different directions. I feel for the Bills. Hopes were so high in Buffalo. The Bills haven't won in a month and won't beat Norv and team.

Seattle over St. Louis. Both teams have had their moments this year. The 'Hawks have had more of them.

New York Giants over Dallas: I can't believe what a different team the Giants are with Bradshaw in the lineup. Even if he only runs for 50 yards, the secondary has to think about coming up and Eli can do some work. My beloved Giants have killed me this year, but they're still in the hunt. They came so close to knocking off the Pack and the Cowboys lose an embarrassing game. I like the Giants for this one and it's not just because I like the Giants.

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Houston, Detroit, New Orleans, Miami, N.Y. Jets, New England, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Denver, San Francisco, Green Bay, San Diego, Dallas, Seattle.

Lock of the Week: Green Bay.

I'm sorry if this is getting old, but I need to take the Packers here -- probably by a lot.

Upset of the Week: Jacksonville.

This is indeed an upset based on the format we've been following. The Jaguars seem to show up intermittently and have beaten some tough opponents this year (e.g., Baltimore). I think they'll be able to beat a misguided and very underwhelming Bucs team. The Jags defence is better than you think and I anticipate they'll key in on LaGarrette Blount to win this game.

NFL 2011: Week 14 Thursday Night Football

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Update: Okay, well, what can I say? Seeing Ben go down made me sick. He means so much to this team, and Batch, while a really great guy, just isn't a good QB at this late point of his career. But a Ben who can't move is better than Batch, and Ben shockingly came out to start the third quarter, even leading the Steelers down the field before a dropped pass forced them to punt. We shall see. They should be up 14-3, at least, but those two fumbles deep in Cleveland territory are keeping this game close. Too close. I'm not sure the Steelers can score much more, and the Browns are actually moving the ball fairly well. I have a bad feeling about this. It won't end well. (Not with a stupid 15-yard personal foul penalty on Farrior, the leader of the D. Seriously. WTF?!)

Update 2: Call me a homer, call me a Big Ben apologist, call me whatever you want. That was one of the most remarkable performances I've ever seen. You'll hear the word "gutsy" thrown around a lot, you'll hear the word "tough." Well, it didn't look like there was any chance Roethlisberger would come back and play. When I saw the injury, when I saw him limp off in pain, I thought... "well, that's the season." Or at least the next few weeks. And then he comes out and plays? He couldn't step into his throws, he could barely even make some of his handoffs. He was in obvious pain. Not just the usual discomfort, pain. Yes, he threw a bad interception, and the Steelers were terrible in the red zone, but most of the bad play wasn't his fault. If Mendenhall had been able to knock it in from the one (or if Wallace had scored on the long pass play prior to their failed attempts to run it in), if Brown hadn't dropped a key pass, if Ward and Miller hadn't fumbled early on, his numbers would have been even better and the game wouldn't have been close. But to put up 280 yards and 2 TDs? Simply amazing.

And when he threw that brilliant back-shoulder pass to Brown, and when Brown deked and dodged and sprinted his way to a TD, I almost lost it. For me, this is one of the most emotional Steelers wins I've ever witnessed.

I love Pittsburgh. I love the Steelers. And I love Ben Roethlisberger, who appears to have put his past behind him and become a true leader to go along with being one of the best QBs in the league.

Awesome.

**********

Yes, we're all taking the Steelers tonight at home against the Browns -- that would be Richard, The Kid, and I.

(As you may know, my associate editor Richard, a friend of ours nicknamed Comfortable Kid, and I are tracking our picks this year, with posts going up each Sunday at 11 am. We get one point for each correct pick, along with two bonus points if we get our Upset of the Week right. If we get our Lock of the Week wrong, we lose two points as a penalty.)

I'm tempted to take the Steelers as my lock, but my beloved Black 'n' Gold tend to play down to their opponents, and this might just be one of those games. (I'll probably end up taking the Ravens over the Colts as my lock. No way that game is close, even if Baltimore's had some trouble this year with weaker teams, losing to both the Jags and the Seahawks.)

Regardless, I'm hoping Big Ben & Co. play some no-huddle, spread the field, and prove once again that Steelers football, at least on offence, isn't what idiots like Jon Gruden think it is, namely, a power running game. It hasn't been like that since Bettis was the feature back, before Fast Willie Parker took over, and even then it was evident the team was changing, partly because of the emergence of Roethlisberger as the team's best QB since Bradshaw (and now maybe the best ever?) and partly because the game itself was changing, with the league cutting down on the clutching and grabbing (to borrow from the NHL) and basically allowing receivers to run their routes completely unchallenged by handcuffed DBs who for the most part could barely keep up. It's not that the rushing game doesn't matter anymore, either for the Steelers or for any other team, it's that the passing game has been unleashed, and teams like the Packers, Saints, Patriots, Colts (prior to this non-Peyton season), and Steelers, that is, the dominant teams of the era, have taken full advantage.

Anyway, this has all the makings of a stressful game. I just want the Steelers to come out and dominate, to show they're an elite team that can crush weaker teams without much trouble. It hasn't been that way so far this year, with way-too-close games against the Colts and Jags, though last week's outstanding performance against the rival and perhaps playoff-bound Bengals certainly boosted my confidence. We'll see what happens tonight, but, with the playoffs approaching, it's time for the Steelers to show they're truly for real. Last week was a start, and we'll see how they do in a tough prime-time matchup next Monday in San Francisco, a long 11 days from now, but we need to beat the Browns at home and we need to do it convincingly.

NFL 2011: Week 13 picks

By Michael J.W. Stickings

It's been a busy week in U.S. politics, what with the continuing rise of Newt and the predictable end of Cain, and, with U.S. politics the usual focus of this blog, we've been ramping up our coverage of the 2012 presidential race. So we've been a bit light on the football. Alas. I even neglected to put up a Thursday post for the Philadelphia-Seattle game.

The Kid picked the 'Hawks, while Richard and I went with the Iggles.

And, watching the game, I felt stupid. Philly's terrible. Sure, they're got enough talent, say, to win a game now and then, and even to beat a decent team like the Giants, but they've got so many problems, so many glaring weaknesses. I never bought into the whole "Dream Team" nonsense, but I did pick them to win the NFC East, in part because of their talent but also because I didn't think much of the Giants and thought the Cowboys weren't quite there. (The football media always talk up the NFC East for a variety of reasons -- east-coast bias, old rivalries, four teams with national coverage going back decades -- but in recent years, including this one, it's been the most overrated division in the league.)

But the signs were there, weren't they? I should have paid more attention to them: the unlikelihood of Vick a) playing up to last year's standard, and b) making it through a full season; inexperience and lack of talent at LB; Nnamdi playing in a new system that wouldn't utilize his strengths (and also Nnamdi getting older and maybe not being quite as good as everyone thought); DeSean Jackson's bad attitude; and, last but not least, Andy Reid, one of the worst supposedly good coaches in the league. Enough said. It's no wonder they suck. (If you want a lengthy analysis of all that's wrong with them, go check out Bill Barnwell's recent requiem at Grantland.)

No, the Seahawks aren't good either, but they were at home and at least try hard. Like I said: stupid, stupid, stupid.

Oh, and that Marshawn Lynch is pretty darn good. Who knew? (Well, my wife, for one, who started him on her fantasy team this week. No wonder she's kicking my ass this year.)

Alright, let's get to the picks...

As you may know, my associate editor Richard, a friend of ours nicknamed Comfortable Kid, and I are tracking our picks this year, with posts going up each Sunday at 11 am. We get one point for each correct pick, along with two bonus points if we get our Upset of the Week right. If we get our Lock of the Week wrong, we lose two points as a penalty. 

I usually post how we did the previous week along with season-to-date standings, but I have neither the time nor the energy tonight. (I'm writing this at 1:05 am, after watching the wonderful movie Beginners, and after a long day, and will be busy all morning.) I'll get it up later today, after the Steelers game. (Unless my beloved Steelers are losing badly. Then I'll get off the couch and try to get on with life.)

**********

Okay, it's Saturday, December 24, Week 16. I'm finally getting around to updating the standings, going week by week. Here's how things stood after Week 12:

Last week

MJWS: 13-3 = 13 points
The Kid: 11-5 (plus upset) = 13 points
RKB: 10-6 = 10 points

Season to date

RKB: 119-57 (7 upsets right, 2 locks wrong) = 129 points
MJWS: 118-58 (4 upsets right, 3 locks wrong) = 120 points
The Kid: 108-68 (5 upsets right, 4 locks wrong) = 110 points

**********

I can, however, report that after some mediocre weeks I went 13-3 last week. I just regret taking the Bears over the Raiders as my upset. I was going back and forth, as I noted in our post last week, but I should have gone with the Redskins. Why didn't I? Because they, like the Eagles on Thursday, were playing on the road against the Seahawks, who have the best home-field advantage in the league with that awesome 12th man -- and because I don't exactly believe in Mike Shanahan (another of the worst supposedly good coaches in the league, though I'm not sure if anything really thinks he's good anymore) and Rex Grossman.

Anyway, here are this weeks games (not including Philadelphia at Seattle on Thursday):

Tennessee at Buffalo

Kansas City at Chicago

Oakland at Miami

Denver at Minnesota

Indianapolis at New England

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Carolina at Tampa Bay

N.Y. Jets at Washington

Atlanta at Houston

Baltimore at Cleveland

Green Bay at N.Y. Giants

Dallas at Arizona

St. Louis at San Francisco

Detroit at New Orleans

San Diego at Jacksonville

Stickings' Pickings

Picks: Buffalo, Chicago, Miami, Denver, New England, Pittsburgh, Carolina, N.Y. Jets, Houston, Baltimore, Green Bay, Dallas, San Francisco, New Orleans, San Diego.

There's no way I'm going 13-3 this week (especially not after losing a game already).

Let's get to my lock and upset, where I provide some substantial analysis.

Lock of the Week: New England.

Allow me to quote Cousin Sal, from his weekly gambling post at Grantland, addressing the prop bet of the Pats scoring over 34 points against the Colts: "This proposition might as well read, 'On a scale of 1 to 10, how big an a-hole does Bill Belichick feel like being?' I'm not sure if the NFL has anti-bullying regulations, but it might put some in place after this game Sunday."

There's a lot of parity in the league, and, sure, you know what they say about any given Sunday. But there is no realistic scenario in which the Colts win this game. It's the surest thing all year.

If you want to play it a bit riskier, how about the 49ers at home against the Rams? Okay, that's actually not much riskier. The Rams did beat the Saints in Week 8, but that was at home and the Saints don't exactly have a great D.

Baltimore should also clobber Cleveland.

Upset of the Week: Miami.

We base our possible upsets on pick distribution in Yahoo pick'em. If a team is picked by 35 percent or less, we allow that as an upset pick. Last week, as I mentioned, I was going back and forth between two possible upsets, the Skins over the Hawks or the Bears over the Raiders. This week I see 12 possible upsets.

Yes, twelve. Let's take a look:

1) Titans over Bills -- Buffalo has imploded after an impressive (but mirage-y) start to the season. The Titans don't exactly overwhelm you on offence, but Chris Johnson broke out last week and could have a huge game today. And Hasselbeck is good enough not to lose the game. Oh, and Fred Jackson, one of the best RBs in the league this year, is out for the Bills. I'm taking Buffalo at home in a squeaker, but I'm not at all confident about it.

2) Chiefs over Bears -- Pittsburgh didn't play well last Sunday night at Arrowhead, and the whole thing just made me sick to my stomach, but, you know, the Chiefs' D, while inconsistent, isn't bad, and of course the Bears won't have Cutler behind center. Can they stop Matt Forte? Yes, because they won't have to worry about Caleb Hanie and a generally unimpressive receiving corps. Now, while the Bears might not be able to put up many points, will the Chiefs be able to get it going at all against the Bears' D? Remember, the Chiefs are starting Tyler Palko again, who at times last week looked absolutely horrendous. Kyle Orton may take over at some point, but there's just not enough talent at the "skill" positions. I'll take the Bears at home, but K.C. could pull this one out.

3) Dolphins over Raiders -- I just don't believe in Carson Palmer. Granted, I don't believe in Matt Moore and the Fins either, but they're at home against a team coming in from the west coast and are playing some decent football. Remember, they almost took down the 'Boys last week in Dallas on Thanksgiving. I'm taking Miami as my Upset of the Week.

4) Vikings over Broncos -- I don't believe in Tebow either. (I won't get into it again here.) But there's no denying that he makes things happen when he needs to, usually in the last few minutes after he's played a generally terrible game, barely able to throw the ball straight. But the Broncos aren't winning because of Tebow but because because their D has been coming together nicely, especially the pass rush led by Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil, and because they've been going through an especially weak part of their schedule (Raiders, Chiefs, Jets, Chargers over the past four weeks, winning them all). They should beat the Vikes, who won't have AP again, but Minnesota has enough talent on D, including Jared Allen and some decent LBs, to make this interesting. Well, "interesting." It'll be a crappy game. And for the first time this year, I'm going with Tebow.

5) Bengals over Steelers -- I'll admit it, the Steelers' D just isn't what it used to be. It gives up way too many late-game scores and doesn't dominate anymore. And while the Steelers have shown they have an impressive passing game, Big Ben's injured (thumb) and has been inconsistent (despite putting up huge numbers). What worries me is that the Steelers don't seem to know what they are and often seem to be unwilling to play to their strengths by spreading the field and airing the ball out the way the Pats and Pack do. They just don't have that killer instinct, so to speak, and we saw that in their game at Cincy a few weeks ago. After getting off to a great start, they suddenly sputtered, letting the Bengals get back in the game and barely holding on at the end for the win. And full credit to the Bengals, who have a solid D and great offensive leadership in Dalton at QB. I suppose I'll take Pittsburgh, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Cincinnati pulled off the upset.

6) Panthers over Bucs -- Basically, Newton over Freeman. That's what it comes down to. Oh wait, it won't be Freeman, who's likely out. So Newton over Josh Johnson. Carolina can't stop the run, but it's not like the Bucs have a powerful offence. And the combination of Newton, Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams and other RB Jonathan Stewart can put up a lot of points when it gets going. Yeah, I'm going Carolina as my #2 upset after Miami.

7) Redskins over Jets -- Two teams I loathe. The Redskins did win in Seattle last week, and Grossman has been playing fairly well, and maybe Shanahan will get the hell out of the way and let Helu be the starting RB the rest of the way, but the Jets are the better team. But the game's in Washington, I have no confidence that Sanchez can play well (despite his four-TD performance against the Bills last week), and the Redskins have enough talent, particularly with Santana Moss back from injury) to make it interesting.

8) Texans over Falcons -- Matt Ryan on the road is much different than Matt Ryan at home. Now, you say, who the hell is T.J. Yates? Good question. We know he's the third-stringer forced into a start due to injuries to Schaub and Leinart, and we suspect that he's not that good, or at least, giving him the benefit of the doubt, can't be good due to his inexperience. But the Texans still have that awesome running game with Foster and Tate and still have a solid receiving corps in all-pro Andre Johnson, Jacoby Jones, Kevin Walter, and Owen Daniels. Yates would have to suck mightily for that offence not to put up points against the Falcons. Plus, on the other side of the ball, the Texans have an outstanding D, led by the likes of LBs Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans and CB Johnathan Joseph, not to mention a solid d-line with tons of sack potential. Yes, Ryan has his weapons, too, but something tells me Houston pulls off the upset in what really shouldn't be considered an upset at all.

9) Giants over Packers -- Just kidding. (Wait, Green Bay has to lose sometime, right? Right? Okay, maybe not. But, you know, it's possible that the G-men take down the Pack at home this week. They've got enough offence to say with Rodgers & Co., and if they get their pass rush back they could actually make it tough for Rodgers to get it going. Seriously.)

10) Cardinals over Cowboys -- Dallas didn't exactly look all that great against the Fins last week and may be looking ahead to the Giants next week. So it's a possible trap game on the road. Do you believe in Romo? Is it possible to believe in Romo? Can he do it? Look, Dallas is by far the better team, and that's my pick, but if Beanie Wells, coming off a huge 228-yard rushing performance last week (the star of my fantasy team, to be sure) after six mediocre-to-bad games in a row, can keep the 'Boys D focused on the run, maybe, yes, just maybe, Kevin Kolb, returning from injury, can hook up with Fitzgerald a few times for big plays. You never know. Any given Sunday and all that.

11) Lions over Saints -- In what could very well be a shootout, you just never know. Certainly we know the Lions can get it going behind Stafford and Calvin Johnson. The Saints were pretty awesome last week, though, putting up 49 on the Giants, and there are just too many questions about Detroit's run game.

12) Jaguars over Chargers -- You never know. Any given Sunday and all that. Especially with Norv Turner and the INT machine known as Philip Rivers involved. And the Jags' D is pretty good.

See what I mean? It's quite a week. Three easy locks and 12 possible upsets.

Crazy. Who doesn't love the NFL?

Barry's Tea Leaves

Picks: Tennessee, Kansas City, Miami, Denver, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, N.Y. Jets, Atlanta, Baltimore, Green Bay, Dallas, San Francisco, New Orleans, San Diego.

Lock of the Week: New England.

Upset of the Week: Miami.

(Note: Richard is suffering from a bad bout of the flu this weekend. So no analysis.)

Comfortable Kid

Picks: Buffalo, Chicago, Oakland, Denver, New England, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, N.Y. Jets, Houston, Baltimore, Green Bay, Dallas, San Francisco, New Orleans, San Diego.

Lock of the Week: San Francisco.

San Francisco over St. Louis. Steven Jackson's playingpoorly and San Francisco is the first team since the 1928 Providence SteamRollers to not allow a rushing TD through11 games. Sam Bradford hasn't shown us that he can beat a team through the air,so I don't anticipate St. Louis giving the Niners much of a fight this weekend.

Upset of the Week: Houston.

The Texans are starting theirthird-string QB, which has helped them become an underdog in this game. I stillthink they can win this game. Three factors weigh into this upset pick: Atlantatends to play notably worse away from home; Houston's defence is vastlyimproved and can shut down Mike Turner and Matt Ryan; and Houston has one ofthe best ground games in the league with Ben Tate and Arian Foster in thebackfield. They've got a good shot at winning this one.