Republicans win NY-9

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Filling the void left by Anthony Weiner, Republican Bob Turner has defeated Democrat David Weprin in the special election in New York's 9th Congressional District.

As I write, Turner is up 53-47 with about two-thirds of precincts reporting.

NY-9 is a heavily Democratic district, including parts of both Brooklyn and Queens, and Republicans will no doubt make much of this win.

But it's actually more complicated than that.

NY-9 is a Democratic district but also somewhat socially conservative given the large Catholic and Jewish presence. Yes, Weiner was able to win it fairly easily, and the Democrats should have been able to hold it post-Weiner, but Israel was a key issue during the campaign and Republicans were able to turn even sympathetic Democrats against Weprin by attacking President Obama's Israel policies, generally centrist policies that are not nearly hardline enough for many of Israel's hardcore supporters (like Ed Koch, though Joe Lieberman, a hardcore pro-Israel "Democrat," actually endorsed Weprin), including in this generally Democratic part of the world.

So is that all there was to it? No. Same-sex marriage was also an issue, with socially conservative tendencies in the district boosting Turner.

And while now is hardly a good time for Obama and the Democrats, let's not forget that Republicans actually have worse approval ratings. So while Republicans will no doubt find a great deal of pro-Republican meaning in this result, I'm not so sure it was any sort of referendum with national implications. Certainly not the way the Democratic victory in heavily Republican NY-26 was -- a reminder that Democrats, if they don't back down, can win on fiscal/economic issues by exposing Republicans as anti-Social Security, anti-Medicare extremists.

And let's not forget, too, that this special election wouldn't have happened had Anthony Weiner not been such an irresponsible idiot (or whatever you want to call him). Maybe he had to go, maybe not, but he did what he did and he put himself in a largely indefensible position politically (Republican hypocrisy notwithstanding). And so to a great extent it's his fault that this seat has gone Republican. It should, after all, still be his.

Alas.

Republicans fire up NY-9 race with their usual anti-Muslim bigotry

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Here's what the GOP mailed to voters in NY-9 -- Anthony Weiner's district, where a special election will be held tomorrow:

And here's Politico with the details:

New York Republicans have sent out a kitchen-sink mailer in the hotly-contested Queens congressional special election depicting a mosque superimposed over the scarred Ground Zero site on one side, and Democrat David Weprin alongside President Barack Obama on the other.

The mailer is one of a string that the New York State Republican Party sent out in this close race between state Assembly member Weprin and Republican businessman Bob Turner for the 9th congressional district seat that was held by scandal-singed Democrat Anthony Weiner.

But it's also one of the more incendiary fliers in the contest that was supposed to be a lock for Democrats in a reliably blue district, but has turned into a dogfight in which Turner has the momentum.

The front of the flier features a golden-domed mosque rising in front of the demolished World Trade Center site, a shell of metal rising near a photo of Weprin and a quote of his from last September, saying: "I support the right of the mosque to buid..."

The reverse page is a picture of Weprin juxtaposed against a photo of the president, and text reading: "Weprin stands with Obama — and they stand together in support of the mosque at Ground Zero."

The piece was received by a registered voter in NY-9 in the past week, landing in the days leading up to the 10th anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks.

Yes, incendiary is one word for it. Exploitational is another, but, then, when have Republicans ever shied away from exploiting 9/11 for personal or political gain?

And anti-Muslim bigotry is just part of who they are these days. They hardly shy away from that either (with a few exceptions, like New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who went way out on a limb to distance himself from so much of the rest of his party).

And make no mistake, the virulent right-wing opposition to Park51, the proposed Muslim community center near Ground Zero, was essentially about anti-Muslim bigotry.

With a possible upset/pickup in sight, Republicans are returning to that well, exploiting 9/11, pandering to the basest prejudices of voters, and saying that a vote for the Republican, Bob Turner, is a vote against Muslims.

And therefore a vote against religious freedom, and freedom generally, particularly freedom for the "Other" as defined in narrow terms by these bigots.

A vote, that is, against all that America is supposed to stand for.

That's Republican America.

The special election for Anthony Weiner's old seat

By Richard K. Barry




I don't know that many people are paying a lot of attention to the special election that will take place on September 13th for New York's 9th congressional district, but things are tighter there than they should be. 



This is the seat vacated by Democratic Rep. Anthony Weiner for conduct unbecoming a congressman. You remember.



To provide some context, Weiner held the seat from January of 1999 until his resignation in June of this year. He won seven terms, never receiving less than 59 percent of the vote. The seat was previously held by Democrat Chuck Shumer, who went on to run successfully for the U.S. Senate.



In a Siena poll conducted Aug. 3-8, Democratic candidate David Weprin is leading Republican Bob Turner by a 48 to 42 percent margin. With a 4.4 percent margin of error, that makes things close.



One interesting note here is that Joe Lieberman has endorsed Weprin, a move meant to counter former New York City Mayor Ed Koch's endorsement of Turner. In general, the media has been trying to characterize the special election in this heavily Jewish Brooklyn and Queens district as a referendum on President Obama's Israel policies, which Koch has characterized as not sufficiently pro-Israel.



In giving his endorsement in late July, Lieberman, a strong supporter of the U.S.-Israel relationship, said:

While David Weprin can be counted on to fight for the safety and security of the State of Israel, we can also rely on him to protect the seniors and working families in Brooklyn and Queens.

Steve Greenberg, a pollster for Sienna, said what pollster always seem to say, which is that voter turnout will be key.

Which campaign will do a better job of identifying their voters and getting them to the polls [will be important] because, as we know, special elections tend to have low voter turnout. Probably fewer than 20 percent of the registered voters in the 9th congressional district will actually go to the polls and vote.

Turner is a retired media executive who ran unsuccessfully against Weiner in the general election last year.



Assemblyman Weprin is a former New York City councilman who ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination to be comptroller in 2009.



Just what the Democrats need right now: A close race in an historically Democratic district.



Thanks, Anthony.



(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

Who's Ed Koch?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Because he's a right-wing extremist on Israel, and therefore opposes President Obama's moderate views on Israel and the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, former New York City Mayor Ed Koch wants a Republican to replace Anthony Weiner in New York's 9th Congressional District, a heavily Jewish district in Brooklyn and Queens. A Republican win, he thinks, would "be another political shot heard around the nation" and make Obama more centrist (i.e., more pro-Israel in a way he approves). No matter that the Democratic candidate, David Weprin is an Orthodox Jew with conservative views on Israel. For Koch, it's all about sending a message to the White House.

All of which is complete nonsense. Koch won't be happy unless Obama, or any president, embraces Likudnik extremism. Sensible moderation isn't enough. But, then, this election should be (and will be) about more than just Israel (and Obama's Israel policy), even in a heavily Jewish district. Other issues are just as much on the minds of voters, if not much more so, and it's silly to think that the vote should be a referendum of sorts on Obama's views on Israel without any regard for the views of the candidates themselves or of the various other concerns of voters. Koch would seem to have a one-track mind. The voters in NY-9 surely have other priorities.

Regardless, I must ask this: Does anyone actually care what Ed Koch thinks about anything? He's a certifiable fool.

And still more on the special election in Nevada's 2nd Congressional District

By Richard K. Barry

Just because I have been following this story for so long, I thought I might as well close the loop. This is the one about the Sept. 13th special election in Nevada's 2nd Congressional District, which, you may recall, is necessary because former Rep. Dean Heller was appointed to the Senate to replace John Ensign, who resigned amidst a sex scandal having to do with the wife of a staffer.

In Nevada, for reasons unclear to me, a primary cannot be used to determine party candidates for special elections. The Secretary of State of Nevada, Ross Miller (D), initially ruled that multiple Republicans and Democrats could run to fill the vacant seat, which meant that a Democrat might be able to sneak through with many candidates running in what is traditionally a Republican seat. This was what they were calling the Battle Royale scenario.

If this is starting to get confusing, just consider that if many Democratic and Republican candidates ran, it could allow an unexpected result, which might have been the only way a Democrat could win.

Anyway, the court ruled on July 5th that parties could in fact choose a singular candidate to run under their party banner, which is what will happen.

It seems as well that both parties have already determined their nominees. Republican Mark Amodei, of the really weird "China will take over America if we raise the debt ceiling" political ad, will take on Nevada State Treasurer Kate Marshall.

Not that it matters anymore, but nut job Tea Party darling Sharron Angle had been in the running earlier but dropped out for reasons only known to herself.

I don't know that the Democrats can't win the seat, but having a crazy person like Angle in the mix or a quirky Battle Royale scenario might have been their best hope. A Democrats has never won a general election for the 2nd District since the district was created after the 1980 census.

Not to go on about this, though I see that I already have, but the most interesting part of this whole story may be the extent to which local courts can have an impact on electoral outcomes. I'm no expert on election law, but it does vary greatly from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and, as we know, especially in general elections, both sides have teams of lawyers ready to swoop in at the slightest hint of impropriety or, shall we say, at the opportunity to create impropriety.

What was it that Shakespeare said about lawyers in Henry VI?

(Cross-posted to Lippmann's Ghost.)

Yet another update on the Nevada 2nd special election -- Sharron Angle is out

By Richard K. Barry

 

Somehow I missed a development in the special election coming this fall to fill the Nevada 2nd Congressional seat vacated by Dean Heller when he replaced John Ensign in the U.S. Senate after Ensign resigned amid an ethics inquiry.

The big news is that, Sharron Angle, Tea Party star, and failed Nevada Senate candidate, has decided not to seek the seat after seriously gearing up to take a shot at it.

It's all very interesting, with elements of local intrigue, but it boiled down to the fact that a judge ruled that the political parties must pick their candidate, one candidate per party, for the ballot to take place on Sept. 13th.

This overturned Secretary of State Ross Miller's earlier decision that anyone could run in what would have amounted to a free-for-all.

As it seemed unlikely that Angle would get the Republican Party nod, she apparently decided she didn't like the odds of running in a field that would include a GOP sanctioned nominee. Instead, she was clearly hoping for a very crowded field in which she might benefit from a strong Tea Party base and good vote splits.

Democrats were also hoping for the free-for-all scenario on the same theory that many candidates could potentially split the conservative vote in a way beneficial to them.

But it's not over yet as the Nevada Supreme Court will hear arguments on June 28th. There is even some talk that the Sept. 13th election might be delayed to give the court more time to render a decision.

Currently, 28 candidates have filed to run, including 14 Republicans and 9 Democrats.

Still hard to know what will happen here, both in the courts and at the ballot box. I should note that McCain took the district by a slim 88 votes against Obama out of 335,720 cast in 2008, though the Republican (Heller) took the Congressional race by more than 10% in the same year.

It's interesting that Angle dropped out before the case wound its way through the courts.

Here is what she had to say, as reported in the National Journal:

Current outcomes concerning the special election have made this election in Nevada an illegitimate process that disenfranchises the electorate. Clearly, no solution that the Supreme Court can make will correct the injury to free and open elections caused by ambiguous laws and subsequent lawsuits. 

While criticizing back room deals by a "select group of people" she also indicated that she didn't want to run in a free-for-all scenario either, which are the only options currently under consideration by the Nevada Supreme Court.

Now it seems that the only process she would accept is a primary system, which is disallowed by Nevada state law.

Who know? It sounds like she didn't like the way things were shaping up and decided to take a hike by pissing in all directions.

Angle has thus far given no clear indication of future plans. Too bad, if only for the entertainment value. She certainly puts on a good show - crazy, but good.

What I find most interesting in all of this, though, is the length to which the GOP establishment may be willing to go to ensure they don't repeat the mistakes of 2010 with crazy Tea Party-backed candidates.

(Cross-posted to Lippmann's Ghost.)

The aftermath of NY-26, looking ahead to 2012

By Michael J.W. Stickings

A few quick hits as we all try to sort out the meaning of yesterday's Democratic victory in New York's heavily Republican 26th Congressional District:

Politico: "Have Democrats cracked the code for 2012?"

Nate Silver, NYT/538: "Six Months After Midterm Disaster, Hopeful Signs for Democrats."

Steve Benen sums it up: "What we saw in Buffalo was a test -- how is the public responding to the GOP's far-right agenda in Congress? It's a test Republicans failed."

Here's what I wrote last night, just after the race was called for Hochul:

Sure, a number of factors went into Hochul's victory, but, again, a lot of it had to do with the Ryan plan and, more broadly, the Republicans right-wing agenda. That's what Republicans were touting. That's what they were making so public. That's what they wanted to define them. Well, it failed -- once people learned about it, they recoiled. And in this heavily Republican district in Western New York, a Democrat, helped a little bit but not much by a Tea Party challenger taking votes away from the Republican, has swept to victory.

There's no guarantee, of course, that this is how things will play out in November 2012, and a whole lot can change between now and then, but that doesn't mean this wasn't a hugely significant and revealing result that may just be an indicator of things to come.

**********

And, of course, the Senate yesterday rejected Paul Ryan's budget, which is now Republican orthodoxy.

The vote was 57-40 against, with five Republicans (Brown, Collins, Snowe, and Murkowski, who oppose it, and Paul, who thinks it doesn't go far enough) siding with the Democratic majority. 

What this means is that Republicans voted 41 to 4 to destroy Medicare. As TPM's Brian Beutler observes:

[T]he roll call illustrates that Medicare privatization -- along with deep cuts to Medicaid and other social services -- remains the consensus position of the GOP despite the growing political backlash against them.

And they'll be running on this in 2012 (while attacking the Democrats from the left and arguing that they're the ones who will protect Medicare from Democratic cuts, as utterly dishonest as this would be). 

Good times ahead.

Live-blogging the 2011 NY-26 special election

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Okay, let's do some live-blogging -- with American Idol in the background (not my choice, I'd rather have the Jays-Yanks game on, though I admit I'm also interested in how Hines Ward does on Dancing With the Stars).

8:34 pm: The Buffalo News is the place to go for election coverage tonight. The national media are all over this story, of course, but it's good to get the local perspective. And I say that as a Torontonian -- Buffalo is local to us. And the News has a running blog right on its main page. (I've submitted a couple of questions/comments.)

8:36 pm: Jon Chait notes that the Tea Party candidate, Jack Davis, isn't really playing the spoiler. He's running on an economic populism platform, "emphasizing economic protectionism." In other words, he's running on the Ross Perot platform, and the numbers show he has support across the spectrum -- leaning to the right but not so much that all of his supporters would vote Republican were he not in the race. What this means is that Hochul (pictured here), the Democrat, is doing astoundingly well to have been up in the polls. It's not exactly a Hochul-Corwin race, but it's close to that, which means the Democrat and Republicans are on fairly even terms. And the Democrat, in this highly Republican district, appears to be ahead. (Though of course we'll have to see what the actual results are.)

8:41 pm: What to watch, according to Politico. This afternoon, Richard Barry, my friend and associate editor of this humble blog, said that his gut was telling him Corwin would win. He usually knows what he's talking about, and his political instincts are generally on the mark. Needless to say, though, I hope he's horribly wrong.

8:42 pm: In other words, the Republican spin, which is already that a Corwin loss would be because Davis, is simply wrong (and, of course, dishonest).

8:48 pm: I continue to contend that this is a significant election (even if some pundits are being rather more cautious). Maybe not a perfect harbinger of things to come but at least an indicator of where things might be headed in 2012. It's also not simply a referendum on the Republicans' right-wing agenda, and specifically Ryan's budget (and anti-Medicare) plan, but that's certainly part of it, and what's abundantly clear is that voters are rejecting it. The Democrats will no doubt continue to press the issue and tie Republicans to the plan, while Republicans will be split between those who demand that the plan be party orthodoxy from which deviation/dissent is not tolerated (as we saw recently with Gingrich) and those who, looking at the polls and thinking of their electoral chances (and careers) run away from it.

8:52 pm: I read earlier that turnout seems to be very good today. It'll be interesting to see the numbers, but high turnout should favour Hochul (i.e., change, which generally attracts more enthusiasm than the status quo). 

8:58 pm: Alright, polls close in two minutes... 

8:59 pm: Uh-oh. The News, on its running blog, is reporting high turnout in Republican-heavy rural counties and low turnout in Democratic-leaning urban/suburban counties like Erie and Niagara. Not good.

9:00 pm: Even if so much of this vote is about the unpopularity of the Ryan plan, it's telling that Hochul has been presenting herself as an independent. That's what you have to do in such a Republican district. 

9:02 pm: Awfully interesting that Corwin, according to the News, "this afternoon obtained a court order from State Supreme Court Justice Russell P. Buscaglia barring a certification of a winner in the special 26th Congressional District race pending a show-cause hearing before him later this week." What Corwin and the Republicans certainly don't want is for Hochul to be declared the winner of what is anticipated to be a close vote. A spokesman for Corwin said that "we want to make sure that every legal vote is counted fairly and accurately," but I wonder, is there really any good reason for this? I'm suspicious.

9:18 pm: I love Hines Ward.

9:19 pm: Early returns coming in. Nothing much to report. Results should start coming in more quickly around 9:30. 

9:23 pm: In the end, given low turnout generally, this could all come down to GOTV. And Corwin certainly had something of an advantage in a heavily Republican district. 

9:24 pm: Yes, Ms. Corwin, you made some major missteps. But the problem isn't just that you didn't effectively address the Medicare issue early on, it's that you're a Republican who supports the party's unpopular budget agenda. And you're running at a time when the Republican name is toxic.

9:27 pm: 14 percent of precincts reporting, Hochul up 46-43 over Corwin. For what it's worth this early on.

9:32 pm: From the News: "The theme to Rocky is playing here at Corwin headquarters. Some might consider a song about underdogs an odd choice for a Republican running in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by 27,000 voters." Odd indeed. 

9:37 pm: A third of the way through. With 33 percent reporting, it's 48-42 for Hochul. 

9:42 pm: Looks like results will come in slowly. Might not know much until 11. 

9:48 pm: Although we're already up to 57 percent reporting. 47-43 for Hochul. 

Richard K. Barry: "I see that Maine Republican Senator Olympia Snowe has joined the other GOP senator from Maine Susan Collins and Mass GOP senator Scott Brown in saying she will vote against the Ryan budget plan. No matter what happens tonight in the NY-26th, a lot of Republicans are going to be looking for ways to step away from these destructive Medicare measures."

Richard K. Barry: "New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and Bill Clinton did robocalls into the NY-26. I really wonder if those things have any impact. Would it really matter to me if Bill Clinton's voice was on my answering machine? Probably not." 

10:04 pm: Now it's just the waiting game...

Richard K. Barry: "Numbers look good for Hochul but it's always hard to know how things are going without knowing which precincts have reported. Jack Davis is at 8%. Win or lose this is a terrible night for Republicans. No way to paint this as anything other than what it is, a referendum on the Ryan budget plan. Just called for Hochul.

10:05 pm: Well, no more waiting. It has indeed been called, by the AP and MSNBC and I assume shortly everyone else.

HOCHUL WINS!

10:06 pm: Honestly, how incredible is this? Think back to last November. The Republicans took back the House, reduced the Dems' majority in the Senate, and looked like they had all the momentum, with Obama and the Democrats clearly on the defensive. And then... The Democrats pulled out a few victories during the lame-duck period, including DADT repeal, and Obama seemed to emerge virtually unscathed even after calling the election a shellacking. Well, look where we are now!

Sure, a number of factors went into Hochul's victory, but, again, a lot of it had to do with the Ryan plan and, more broadly, the Republicans right-wing agenda. That's what Republicans were touting. That's what they were making so public. That's what they wanted to define them. Well, it failed -- once people learned about it, they recoiled. And in this heavily Republican district in Western New York, a Democrat, helped a little bit but not much by a Tea Party challenger taking votes away from the Republican, has swept to victory.

And, it would appear, a fairly decisive victory. With 83 percent reporting, Hochul is up 48-43. Davis is at 8 percent, and so has more support than the difference between Hochul and Corwin, but, again, from what the polls were saying it's not like all of Davis's supporters would have voted Republican. In other words, even in a straight Democrat-Republican race, Hochul would likely have prevailed.

Richard K. Barry is ecstatic. As am I. Awesome!!!

10:20 pm: Okay, well, I guess that's it for us tonight. Hochul should be giving her victory speech shortly. Thanks for being here. It was a fun few hours that ended extremely well.

Take care, everyone.

Update on Nevada's 2nd Congressional district featuring court rulings and a note on Sharron Angle's potential future

By Richard K. Barry

I was away for a few days and noticed upon my return that a Nevada District Court judge in Carson City sided late last week with the state Republican Party over ballot rules to determine who can run to fill the now vacant Nevada 2nd Congressional District seat.

I wrote about the original sequence of events a little while ago.

Initially, the Democratic Secretary of State, Ross Miller, decided that any candidate who qualified to run in the September 13th special election would be allowed to do so. This meant that in theory there could be several Republican and several Democratic candidates on the ballot.

Given that the Nevada 2nd is a safer Republican seat, splitting the vote amongst conservatives was seen as the Democrats' best chance of stealing one.

Republicans successfully took it to court to overturn Miller's decision, thus turning the job over to party committees as to which single Republican and which single Democrat would run to represent their respective parties.

If that ruling stands, it will be good news for Republicans, though there is concern within the GOP that failed Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle, who has her eye on this Congressional seat, will run whether or not she gets her party's nod. Since it seems highly unlikely that she would be handed the Republican nomination, vote splitting on the right continues to be a concern should she run as an independent. 

Late breaking news is that lawyers for the Nevada attorney general plan to file court papers with the state Supreme Court appealing the Carson City judge's ruling limiting who can run.

You'll recall that Dean Heller held the seat for the Republicans before being appointed to the Senate to fill a vacancy created by Republican John Ensign's resignation when he was forced to step down after what the Las Vegas Review-Journal called "marital infidelities." Nice term that.

It's not clear where this will land in the courts, but I must say that I had no idea Republican Congressional politics in Nevada could be so much fun.

It seems also to be the case that we still may not have seen the end of Tea Party darling Sharron Angle, undoubtedly one of the conservative movement's dimmer lights, which has to be good news for Democrats everywhere. Please stick around a while longer, Sharron. Please.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)

Today is the day for NY-26: Voters head to the polls in special election

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Yes, it's today, at long last, the special election in New York's 26th Congressional District to replace Republican Chris Lee, who resigned earlier this year.

I wrote about the election here and here, but let me explain again what's going on here:

In a heavily Republican district in Western New York, the combination of a Tea Party challenger (Jack Davis) and a Republican who supported Paul Ryan's deeply unpopular anti-Medicare plan (Jane Corwin) have given the Democrat (Kathy Hochul) a great chance to win. Indeed, the latest polling gives Hochul a six-point lead over Corwin, 42 to 35, with Davis in third with 13.

It seems incredible, when you think about it, until you realize that this special election has essentially become a referendum of national proportions and a key indicator for where things might be headed in 2012. It's not all about Ryan and the Republicans' radical right-wing budget plans, as I've written, but there's enough of that to suggest that the Republicans may be in trouble, with voters coming to learn of those plans and turning away in disgust, particularly independents.

Sure, Corwin might very well win a head-to-head race against Hochul, but it would be close (as it is wrong to assume that she would pick up all of Davis's support), and, again, this is a heavily Republican district, a "safe" seat that should stay GOP. It would be enough, in a way, just for Hochul, or any Democrat, to put in a good showing, to make it a competitive race. The fact that she's well ahead in the polls is incredibly significant, both in local and national terms, the local and national essentially merging here.

And the fact that she might just win...

Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves. If you're in NY-26, make sure you get out to vote.

Let's hope Hochul, who certainly has our full support, pulls this out. It would be a great victory for her, as well as for the Democratic Party and for efforts to reject the right-wing Republican agenda.

NY-26: As shocking as it seems, could the Democrats actually win this?

By Michael J.W. Stickings

I've been meaning to do an update post on the NY-26 special election, set for May 24. I wrote about it last month, noting that what is basically a safe Republican seat in suburban Buffalo (and small-town and rural Western New York) had turned into a toss-up as a result of a divide on the right, with a Tea Partier, Jack Davis, challenging the Republican candidate, Jane Corwin, with the Democrat, Kathy Hochul, not far behind and certainly within striking distance.

Well, while Corwin is certainly conservative enough to appeal broadly across the Republican spectrum and while she certainly has significant Tea Party support of her own, The Rothenberg Political Report has now moved the race from "Lean Republican" to "Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic":

Both parties agree that the race remains close – "within the margin of error" is the phrase most often used – and Republican Jane Corwin certainly has a chance to energize and turnout GOP voters in this Republican-leaning district. But Democrats seem more enthusiastic right now.

After a series of focused attacks in the paid and earned media, Republicans apparently have succeeded in bringing down self-proclaimed Tea Party candidate Jack Davis's numbers to a place where the race should be winnable for Corwin.

But those one-time Davis voters are not going immediately to Corwin, raising new doubts about the Republican’s ability to grow her support in the final week. More importantly, Hochul appears to have solidified her image and even increased her share of the vote.

What's interesting is that this local race is essentially national in terms of issues and is thus a possible indicator of where things might go in 2012:

Democrats have been pounding Corwin for supporting Wisconsin Cong. Paul Ryan's budget, including dramatic changes to Medicare. Those attacks apparently have made it difficult for Corwin to attract disaffected Davis voters. 

It's not all about Ryan and the Republicans' radical right-wing budget plans, but there's enough of that to suggest that the Republicans may be in trouble, with voters coming to learn of those plans and turning away in disgust, particularly independents.

And if the Tea Party, or at least the part of it that refuses to be absorbed completely into and/or co-opted by the GOP, continues to throw up right-wing candidates that eat away at Republican support, as it may well do all across the country, the prospects for Democrats will be even better, with even fairly safe Republican seats turned into competitive races, like NY-26, seats that might just flip.