Conservatives narrow gap in Canada

According to the Globe and Mail / CTV tracking poll, the Conservatives are now just two points behind the governing Liberals. The Liberals are at 33%, while the Conservatives are at 31%. The New Democrats are third at 17%, the separatist Bloc Quebecois fourth at 13% (all in Quebec, of course). The Greens come in fifth at 5%.

The numbers have remained relatively consistent, which means that we're looking at either a Liberal or Conservative minority government coming out of the Jan. 23 election. I still think the Liberals will end up on top, if only by a few seats, but it's not inconceivable that the Conservatives could pull out a narrow victory.

One point, however: Although the Liberals and Conservatives are close, these poll numbers show that the center of gravity in Canadian politics is very much on the center-left of a spectrum that already leans to the left of its American counterpart. The Conservatives are for the most part a center-right party with smaller populist, religious, and neoconservative elements on its right flank. The Liberals, traditionally Canada's dominant party, occupy a huge swath of the spectrum all the way from the left, where they occasionally overlap with the socialist New Democrats, to the other side of center, where they overlap with the more traditional Tory elements among the Conservatives. The New Democrats, to repeat, are on the left, Canada's mainstream socialists. The Greens aren't easily identified on the spectrum, but they are for the most part on left and center-left. The Bloc is a single-purpose party that promotes Quebecois separatism. Like its provincial counterpart, the Parti Quebecois, it spans the spectrum from socialism on the left to nationalism on the right, but for the most part the Bloc leans left on economic and social issues (for example, it supported same-sex marriage).

The Conservatives may win a narrow minority government, but Canada is not a conservative (or Conservative) country. To be sure, there is conservatism in Canada and there's obviously room for a party that represents the interests of the right side of the spectrum, but the majority of Canadians -- those who will vote for the Liberals, the New Democrats, the Bloc, and the Greens -- will not vote for such a party. The Liberals may similarly win a narrow minority government, but at least the Liberals are more or less in line with the majority of Canadians, even if that majority divides its votes among a number of parties and thereby allows the Conservatives to squeak through.

I haven't yet decided where my vote will go. I'm not impressed with any of the candidates in my riding in downtown Toronto. But it's nice to know that, regardless of the outcome, Canadians will express once again that we are a liberal (if not necessarily Liberal) country.