Mass. Senator Scott Brown's futile attempt to sell himself as an independent

By Richard K. Barry

I am on a mission. It is to assist, in whatever small way I can, the candidacy of Elizabeth Warren for the U.S. Senate in Massachusetts. Well, sure, I'm not likely to have much of an impact. I know that. But I have noticed that Ms. Warren is so effective at getting under the skin of conservatives everywhere that it will be no end of fun to follow her campaign and attack and counterattack those who would try to stand in her way.

Early good news is that Warren seems to be polling well. According to a new Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey, she is now leading the incumbent, Republican Scott Brown, by two points. While that may not sound like much, earlier in September a different poll had Brown with a nine point lead.

As The Wall Street Journal suggests, this may:

[R]eflect a growing number of moderates who perceive Ms. Warren as a viable and palatable alternative to Mr. Brown, whom they've cooled to since Republicans took the House.

Mr. Brown's poll numbers last year made him look untouchable. In December, he posted a 53% approval rating and a 24% positive differential in a PPP survey. By June, however, his approval rating had slipped to 48% and his positive differential to 12 points. His differential has since turned negative and his approval rating now hovers at 44%. His approval rating among moderates, which proved critical in his upset of Democrat Martha Coakley two years ago, has slipped 12 points, though moderates still favour Mr. Brown over Ms. Warren by six points. The poll also shows that independents increasingly view the senator as more Republican than independent. Independents also perceive the GOP as more extreme.

As the numbers game is likely to be played:

Independents and moderates make up about 45% of Massachusetts' electorate, while Democrats constitute 40%. Should she win the primary, Ms. Warren almost certainly has the Democratic vote tied up. So Mr. Brown would probably have to win roughly 75% of the independents to prevail in November.

Frankly, I'm not quite sure I follow their math, but if they mean that Brown will have to paint himself as a centrist while standing with one of the most conservatives incarnations of the Republican Party in American history, good luck to him. It simply will not be possible. If there is one truth about the GOP in 2012 it is that apostates need not apply, with a corollary that the term "moderate Republican" has become an oxymoron. So, no matter how hard he tries, he will be judged by the company he keeps.

Yes, Warren needs to win the nomination, which I think she will do. At the end of the day, much to Brown's consternation, she will also prove herself, I am sure, to be no Martha Coakley and he will prove himself incapable of putting enough distance between himself and his party - though he will have to try.

To put a fine point on it, the good citizens of Massachusetts thought they elected an independent who just happened to be a Republican. They didn't and Ms. Warren will make sure that everyone knows the truth.

Should be fun to watch.

(Cross-posted at Lippmann's Ghost.)