Fifteen point lead for Obama? Third-party candidates hurting McCain more?

By MSS

The LA Times/Bloomberg poll out today [PDF] shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 15 percentage points, 48–33. Ralph Nader (independent) is at 4%, Bob Barr (Libertarian nominee) at 3%, "other candidate" 2%, and "Don't know" 10%.

Kudos to the LA Times/Bloomberg for actually asking about multiple candidates. The question prompt (p. 12 of the linked PDF document) asks about "the Green Party candidate," unnamed, and immediately after mentioning Nader (which could lead some hearing it to assume the phrase was an appositive modifying Ralph Nader). Cynthia McKinney is nearly certain to be the Green Party candidate, but the Green's convention is not till July 10-13. In any event, around 5 to 6% between Nader and McKinney is probably about right (at least for this point in the campaign).

The question--asked prior to the multicandidate one--about just Obama and McCain put Obama up by 12 points (49–37, with 4% other and 10% don't know). This result confirms what I always say about third-party and independent candidates: in a "change" election--and they don't get more "change-y" than this one--the minor candidates tend to draw more from the incumbent party than from the challenger, pretty much independent of ideology. McKinney and Nader really are no greater threats to Obama than Barr is, and, in turn, Barr is not much of a threat to McCain. That is, McCain has far more to worry about than Bob Barr, though the latter might help put Barr's home state of Georgia in play. (McKinney, like Barr, is a former US Representative from Georgia, but I don't see many Georgians going for her over Obama.)

A Newsweek poll a few days ago had Obama up on McCain, 51–36, but it does not appear that any other candidates were asked about in that poll.