Polling Palin: Where she stands for 2010

By Michael J.W. Stickings

Sarah Palin is beloved by conservatives here and there, if not everywhere, but it's not clear what her own state thinks of her when it comes to a possible challenge to Sen. Lisa Murkowski in 2010.

On Monday, Alaska's KTUU-TV reported on a new poll showing Palin a solid 24 points behind Murkowski. The same polling firm gave Murkowski a 27-point lead, according to the right-wing Alaska Standard.

Pretty convincing, no?

No.

A Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos a few weeks ago put Palin ahead of Murkowski by a solid 24 points.

Alaska is a difficult state to poll, as 2008 proved yet again, but 24/27 points one way and 24 points the other? What gives?

As polling guru Nate Silver notes, "this is pretty unprecedented," even for Alaska. What he finds, though, is that the pro-Murkowski polling is dubious. Although he doesn't discuss the firm that conducted it, Dittman Research, he points out that The Alaska Standard, though on the right, is vehemently anti-Palin and pro-Murkowski. How convenient that it would produce a poll according with its preferences.

According to KTUU, Dave Dittman himself criticized the Research 2000 poll, but my sense is to go with Silver on this. Palin may not be ahead by so much -- and there's still a long way to go before the 2010 primaries -- but she undoubtedly poses a significant threat to Murkowski.

Whether Palin runs is another matter. So far, there has been no indication that she intends to. Still, Murkowski is right to be concerned. Palin isn't about to go away anytime soon.